By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Apr. 28, 2021 6:20 AM AKDT
June-like warmth will come to an end after a round of potentially robust thunderstorms erupts across the Midwest, New England and the central Appalachians later this week. AccuWeather forecasters say the stormy weather will ignite as cooler air arrives from the north, and some of the storms will drop heavy rain and become severe.
The weather pattern this week is more typical of June and not only because of the warmth, but also the nature of the storms on the way, AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.
"Temperatures will peak at levels more typical of late June over much of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic regions on Wednesday," Sojda explained. "We also often see potent storms sag southward into that warm air during June," adding that is similar to the pattern expected to unfold later Wednesday into Thursday.
Widespread highs in the 80s F are forecast from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic at midweek. At this level, some daily record highs may be challenged.
Thunderstorms are forecast to erupt amid the summerlike conditions from Missouri to Maine Wednesday. Some of these storms are likely to pack a punch in terms of gusty winds, small hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning strikes.
Over the lower end of the Ohio Valley and middle part of the Mississippi Valley, the storms may fire up first thing Wednesday morning. Farther to the north and east, strong storms are likely to hold off until the afternoon and evening.
"There is the potential for a couple of rotating super cell thunderstorms to get going with high winds, large hail and perhaps even a brief tornado," Sojda said. "The most likely spots for that are along Interstate 90 near lakes Erie and Ontario during Wednesday afternoon and evening."
The zone of thunderstorms is expected to push southward Thursday and focus mainly from near the Ohio River to parts of the central Appalachians in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and western Maryland. A few storms may even reach the upper mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday.
On Friday, showers and locally heavy thunderstorms may finally sag into the lower part of the mid-Atlantic and interior Southeast states.
For many parts of the Midwest and Northeast there have been less than a handful of days with thunderstorms so far this year, and people spending time outdoors will need to keep an eye out for changing weather conditions.
Lightning safety experts say it is important to move indoors, away from windows at the first rumble of thunder. Golf carts, picnic pavilions and bus stops do not offer adequate protection from a lightning strike.
The AccuWeather app can help determine the start and stop times of thunderstorms for exact locations in addition to providing a way to receive severe thunderstorm watches and warnings.
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The United States typically has an uptick of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the period from March through May as cooler air across the North clashes with warmth building across the South. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center reported that 75% of flash flooding events in the U.S. take place over a similar time period, between late April and the middle of September across the Lower 48 states.
This year, AccuWeather long-range forecasters expect stormy weather to be on the increase in the coming weeks across the Midwest and Northeast.
Even though storms may threaten damaging winds and flash flooding, they will bring the prospect of some needed rainfall. Much of the zone from the Great Lakes to New England is experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Rainfall from the storms is likely to be sporadic and brief but may deposit up to a few tenths of an inch in some locations. The rainiest spots in northern New England may pick up close to an inch of rain.
A wave cooler and drier air is forecast to make steady progress over much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region later this week, but it has the potential to move slowly enough farther south to trigger flooding problems in parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley into Thursday.
The air that will arrive after storms depart the Great Lakes and Northeast will be substantially cooler but not nearly as cold as some bursts that occurred during April. During early April, temperatures dipped into the teens and 20s over a broad area. Just late last week widespread low temperature in the 20s and 30s were recorded.
Still, there is a chance that temperatures dip close to frosty levels in portions of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, where skies become clear and winds will diminish Friday night. In the coldest spots across Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York state and western New England, temperatures may dip into the lower 30s for a few hours.
The midweek warmth may lead to extensive bud break and blossoming that could put some berry, vine and orchards at a higher risk for cold damage when compared to late last week. Some protective measures may be needed Friday night in order to protect tender plants.
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