Chris Dolce
A multi-day, and potentially widespread, threat of severe thunderstorms looms for the South this week, including some tornadoes as well as damaging winds and large hail.
There will be an intensifying low-pressure system drawing Gulf of Mexico moisture into the South as it tracks across the central and eastern states late Tuesday through Thursday. At the same time, the jet stream will take a deep plunge into the South.
When this combination of ingredients comes together in spring, it often signals there could be a significant threat of severe thunderstorms. The week ahead is no different.
Below we have an overview of where we could see severe thunderstorms this week. However, keep in mind that details are still uncertain, including the exact magnitude of the tornado threat as well as the exact locations with the greatest risk.
Forecast
Into Monday
Before this storm system arrives, there could be an isolated severe thunderstorm threat in the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday night, and in parts of east-central Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. Locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado are the main threats.
This would be associated with the warm side of Winter Storm Xylia.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night
The chance of severe thunderstorms will increase late Tuesday and Tuesday night over the south-central states.
Areas from south-central Kansas into much of Oklahoma, western Arkansas, southwest Missouri and far northern Texas have the greatest chance of seeing severe storms at this time.
Large hail is the primary threat from any storms that turn severe, but some damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are also possible.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night Severe Thunderstorm ThreatWednesday-Wednesday Night
St. Patrick's Day could be the peak of this multi-day severe thunderstorm threat.
Some severe weather might be ongoing Wednesday morning in parts of eastern Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.
Severe storms are expected to become more numerous through the afternoon and into the nighttime hours from the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley to possibly as far east as Georgia and as far north as Tennessee and the lower Ohio Valley.
There could be a threat of tornadoes, especially near and south of where a warm front sets up over the South. Damaging winds and large hail will also accompany these storms.
Wednesday-Wednesday Night Severe Thunderstorm ForecastThursday-Thursday Night
At least some severe weather might persist into Thursday.
Areas from north Florida to parts of Georgia, the central and eastern Carolinas and southern Virginia should be watching this forecast closely for updates with more details over the next few days.
Thursday-Thursday Night Severe Thunderstorm ForecastThe Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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