By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Feb. 4, 2021 6:27 PM EST
Old Man Winter is ready to utilize everything in his tool belt through next week as persistent rounds of frigid air, gusty winds and snow target the northern United States.
The first wave of noticeably colder air and blustery conditions will reach the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, including major cities like Minneapolis and Detroit, as early as Friday morning. Additional waves will hit the region through at least the end of next week. None will be significantly colder than another, but each will reinforce the cold air and keep it in place.
This Arctic blast of cold will be a big contrast from the "feeling" so far this winter, which has been, on average, milder than usual. Many cities have averaged about 5 degrees above normal since Dec. 1, such as Chicago and Minneapolis, while others, such as Sioux Falls, South Dakota, have averaged 8.7 degrees above normal during that time.
The brutal cold holding across the region will provide more opportunities for snow, and the current weather pattern suggests there could be several storms.
"Through mid-February, the persistent cold and rounds of snow will finally make it feel like the dead of winter," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
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While much of the region will be shivering on Friday, a storm lingering in southern Ontario will spark some lake-effect snow across the Great Lakes.
The next wave of snow is likely to start in Nebraska later on Saturday before streaking through the Midwest and into western New York and New England later in the weekend.
The storm is less likely to strengthen during its journey, meaning most areas are likely to get just a few inches of snow. Even a couple of inches of snow can lead to slippery road conditions and travel delays.
This storm track is likely to repeat itself several times through the middle of next week. In fact, the next storm could bring snow to parts of South Dakota and Nebraska before the weekend is over, with another right on its heels early next week.
"Without a break from the below-freezing temperatures, snow will not have the opportunity to melt. Instead, the snow from each storm will just pile on top of the last round," added Sosnowski.
After several rounds of snow and virtually no melting, snow totals after several storms could surpass the 6-inch mark and even approach a foot.
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These quick-moving storms when combined with cold air and gusty winds are forecast to create just the right ingredients for some serious snow downwind of the Great Lakes. Some locations in Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York will get snow from both these storms as well as some lake-effect snow, making several feet of snow possible in some locations by Valentine's Day weekend.
In some years, frequent blasts of cold air move through the Great Lakes early in the winter. This allows Lake Erie, the shallowest of the Great Lakes, to be completely frozen over by February.
However, this season has been different. In fact, only 20% of Lake Erie was covered in ice as of Feb. 3.
"Without the higher coverage of ice over the Great Lakes, more moisture is able to transfer from the lakes to the atmosphere, allowing persistent lake-effect snow bands to form," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary.
While lake-effect snow bands tend to shift around slightly with the wind direction, they can also stay rather stationary, which on occasion can result in feet of snow.
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