Jonathan Erdman
A strong East Coast storm will likely develop early next week, with the potential of soaking rain, wind, severe thunderstorms and snow in parts of the East, South and Midwest as the Thanksgiving holiday weekend fades.
For the most part, Thanksgiving week will escape unscathed from a major storm in the U.S.
(MORE: Thanksgiving Week Forecast)
But that may change as the holiday weekend comes to a close.
Computer model forecast guidance is suggesting a split jet-stream pattern will be in place. A rather vigorous disturbance will be embedded in each of the northern and southern branch jet streams.
Those disturbances from the northern and southern branches will likely combine, resulting in an intensifying low-pressure system in the eastern U.S. early next week.
There are the usual uncertainties regarding the details of where and how much rain or snow may fall, based on the exact track and intensity of the low, typical of any forecast several days out.
But here's a general look at what could happen early next week. Check back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as this forecast becomes clearer.
Sunday's Outlook
Rain and thunderstorms will be the rule over the South, particularly from southeast Louisiana to northern Florida.
The magnitude of the threat of severe thunderstorms during the day is unclear, largely dependent on whether any warm, humid air is able to penetrate farther north into the Deep South, or remain over the Gulf of Mexico. For now, severe thunderstorms are most possible near the northern Gulf Coast.
Sunday night, low pressure may begin to strengthen.
This could draw rain and thunderstorms farther north into the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday night and also push them ahead of a cold front into the Florida Peninsula. Some of these thunderstorms in the Southeast could be severe Sunday night.
This wrapping-up low may also drag in cold air on its northwestern flank, with rain changing to snow from the Great Lakes possibly as far south as western Kentucky or western Tennessee Sunday night.
Sunday Night's ForecastMonday's Outlook
Monday or Monday night, low pressure may reach its peak intensity over the East.
The majority of computer model guidance suggests this strong low should track just inland of the East Coast, pumping warmer air up the eastern seaboard.
This means rain is expected in most of the East, with the exception of perhaps far northern New England.
This rain may be heavy, at times, and could be accompanied by wind gusts potentially strong enough to knock out power and down trees or tree limbs along parts of the East Coast, particularly in New England, through Monday night.
Meanwhile, the storm's cold side could lead to snow or rain changing to snow from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Appalachians as far south as the Smoky Mountains. Strong winds could accompany the snow, particularly near the shores of the Great Lakes and over the Appalachians.
Monday's ForecastTuesday's Outlook
As December arrives next Tuesday, the powerful low may still be lingering in the Great Lakes, Northeast or eastern Canada.
Most of the rain should be in New England or off the East Coast.
Some snowfall may linger from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. Heavier snow may fall in bands south or southeast of the Great Lakes.
This lake-effect snow may continue into Wednesday or Thursday.
Check back to weather.com for updates on this storm as details become more clear in the day ahead.
Tuesday's ForecastThe Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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