By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Nov. 30, 2020 11:26 AM
A rapidly developing and fast-moving storm is poised to bring heavy snow and wind to parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and southern Appalachian regions, and heavy rain, gusty winds and even severe thunderstorms to parts of the South, the mid-Atlantic and New England at the start of this week.
The storm is forecast to pack enough of a punch to cause major disruptions to travel, widespread power outages and even property damage. It may seem like a winter wonderland in parts of the Midwest with heavy snow, while thunderstorms and temperatures in the East for a time might be more reminiscent of the springtime.
This image, captured on Monday midday, Nov. 30, 2020, shows a large mass of clouds affecting the eastern third of the nation associated with a significant storm system. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
Even though the weekend ended on a quiet note in the Midwest and the Northeast, the storm was brewing all weekend along the Gulf coast with areas of drenching rain. As the storm continued to organize and pushed northward, rain accelerated northeastward over the eastern third of the nation on Sunday.
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During Sunday night, rain reached parts of the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic coast. A few thunderstorms packing damaging winds and heavy rain pushed from northern Florida to eastern Virginia.
As colder air began to be drawn into the storm, rain became mixed with and changed to snow in portions of Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky late Sunday night. As of the midday hours on Monday, snow was falling from parts of central Kentucky and middle Tennessee to southeastern Indiana, central and western Ohio and southeastern Michigan.
This changeover to snow is forecast to continue to expand eastward into parts of Georgia, western North Carolina, West Virginia, the Virginia Panhandle and eastern Ohio on Monday.
As Monday progresses, the storm will take a quick track up the spine of the Appalachians with warm air to its east and colder air to its west. The strengthening storm will cause winds to roar along the Eastern Seaboard, where peak gusts can reach 80 mph, or hurricane force.
The greatest chance of an 80-mph wind gust is in southeastern Massachusetts, or with any severe thunderstorm that erupts. Winds this strong can break tree limbs, knock over poorly rooted trees, send trash cans and other loose objects sailing through neighborhoods and lead to property damage. The strong winds pushing on ocean and bay waters can lead to coastal fooding from North Carolina to Maine.
The risk of severe thunderstorms with intense downpours, damaging winds and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes will extend northward on Monday from eastern Virginia to Massachusetts. Even though the storm system failed to produce tornadoes on Sunday and Sunday night does not mean the same conditions will persist on Monday. Since the storm itself is strengthening the risk of high winds, severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes will increase on Monday.
During Monday night, the change to snow will continue to progress northward through western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and western New York state.
The rate of snow from Monday to Monday night is likely to be heavy enough to not only pile up on non-paved surfaces and weigh down tree limbs to the point where they can break and cause power outages, but also cause roads to become slippery and snowcovered.
Several inches of snow is expected to pile up over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians with a few inches over parts of middle Tennessee, central Kentucky and Indiana.
Forecasters anticipate that snow amounts will trend upward across Ohio, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and southeastern Michigan. Snow on the order of 6-12 inches is anticipated from northern Ohio to northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York state and southwestern Ontario into Tuesday morning from the main part of the storm. But, additional snow will continue to pile up in the storm's aftermath from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday due to lake-effect.
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Enough snow to shovel and plow is in store for Cleveland, Akron, Dayton, Columbus and Toledo, Ohio; Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, Michigan; Erie, Pennsylvania and Toronto and London, Ontario. Enough snow can fall on Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Knoxville, Tennessee, to make some roads slippery.
Snowfall may be uneven from one area to the next, not only from city to countryside locations, but also can vary from areas that receive sunlight on a sunny day versus areas that are shaded most of the time. Bridges and overpasses on beltways surrounding urban areas may receive more snow than locations in the center of a city in this case due to temperatures near or just above freezing during the storm.
While winds may not get as strong as that of the Atlantic coast, gusts frequenting 30-40 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow and can lead to lakeshore flooding in some communities along the Great Lakes. The combination of the weight of snow and increasing wind can cause some trees to topple and block roads in parts of Ohio, southeastern Michigan, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and southern Ontario.
From Tuesday to early Wednesday, a dry sweep of air will mark the end of rain along the Atlantic coast from south to north.
As colder air continues to be drawn into the storm and passes over the open waters of the Great Lakes, steady snow will transition to flurries and snow squalls from Ohio and West Virginia to western Maryland, western and northern Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and western, central and northern New York state.
The snow squalls in the wake of the storm can be intense enough to suddenly blind motorists along parts of I-70, the Pennsylvania Turnpike, I-80 and I-90 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Lake-effect snow is forecast to continue to pile up after the storm pulls northward into Canada. Where bands of lake-effect snow persist and occur on top of snow from the first part of the storm, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 36 inches (90 centimeters) is anticipated in parts of northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York state and southern Ontario.
Otherwise, the period from Tuesday to Wednesday will be quite blustery and appropriate for the first couple of days of December and the unofficial start to the winter season in the Midwest and Northeast. But, in the Southern states, the weather may be more typical of early January with temperatures of 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below average for early December.
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