Could Eta Become Florida's First Official Named Storm Landfall of the 2020 Hurricane Season?

 Jonathan Erdman

Published: November 4, 2020

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has set a record for U.S. named storm landfalls, and while none of those have technically happened in Florida, the forecast for Eta could change that.

Last week, Hurricane Zeta became the record 11th named storm to landfall in the mainland U.S. in 2020. That's two more than the previous record for the most U.S. landfalls in a season set in 1916.

Incredibly, not one of those landfalls occurred in Florida.

There is an asterisk to that, however.

Hurricane Sally hammered the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama in mid-September with up to 30 inches of rain, wind gusts up to 121 mph and storm surge flooding.

Technically speaking though, Sally's landfall – the location in which the center of a tropical storm or hurricane crosses land – occurred just across the border near Gulf Shores, Alabama.

Sally's Landfall

It also moved across South Florida as Tropical Depression Nineteen. It didn't become Sally until it moved offshore just south of Naples, Florida.

Eta is forecast to approach the southern Florida Peninsula by this weekend. There is the possibility that the center of Eta could directly move into the Florida Peninsula and become the state's first official named storm landfall this season.

Even if Eta turns west toward the Gulf of Mexico before a Florida landfall occurs, there's a chance it could still happen on the Florida Gulf Coast next week.

Alternatively, Eta could bring rain, wind and high surf to parts of Florida, but never officially make landfall in the state.

Florida only had two other brushes this season from storms that later made U.S. landfalls elsewhere.

Tropical storm warnings in the Lower and Middle Keys were later dropped as Tropical Storm Laura tracked over or south of western Cuba in late August.

And while the Atlantic coast of Florida was under hurricane warnings for Isaias in early August, it only brushed the coast with some modest wind and rain while its center remained safely offshore.

Florida's Upper Keys and the west coast of Florida, east of Apalachicola, are the only parts of the East or Gulf coasts that have yet to be placed under a tropical storm or hurricane warning so far this season.

Even parts of western Maine have been in a tropical storm warning this season before the west coast of Florida.

Track of landfalling named storms in the U.S. in 2020. The track through South Florida was Tropical Depression Nineteen, which eventually became Sally in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Seasons: All or Nothing

In recent years, Florida has had frenetic hurricane seasons, but also some long hurricane dry spells.

Hurricane Irma in 2017 sliced up the Florida Peninsula from the Keys northward. That was followed one year later by Category 5 Hurricane Michael's devastation in the Panhandle.

In 2004, Florida was struck by four hurricanes – Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne – three of which passed through Polk County in central Florida.

Tracks of the four hurricanes that impacted Florida in 2004.

Three more hurricanes – Dennis, Katrina and Wilma – made landfall in Florida in 2005. Another one, Rita, brushed the Florida Keys.

But after Wilma, it would be almost 11 years before the next hurricane – Hermine – would make a Florida landfall, a record hurricane drought for the Sunshine State.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.