By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Sep. 29, 2020 2:08 PM
A large storm system poised to navigate across western Europe during the end of the week has the potential to strengthen into a windstorm.
Unsettled weather will arrive across northwestern Europe on Wednesday as a quick-moving storm system sweeps across the United Kingdom and into northern France.
Some areas of heavy rain are forecast to spread across the British Isles and northern France through Wednesday night.
This first storm is forecast to lift north early Thursday and a second, more potent, storm will follow quickly behind.
The second storm is forecast to follow a path across Ireland, Wales and western England on Thursday before moving over northwestern France Thursday night.
Once the storm settles over France it is expected to become largely stationary into the beginning of the weekend. As the storm spins over western Europe, it will bring rounds of rain from the British Isles and northern Spain to Germany and the Balkan Peninsula.
The heaviest rain is set to arrive early Friday morning and continue into Saturday, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards.
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"Rain amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) are likely across western France, the coast of northern Spain and into the Alps," stated Richards. He added that an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mm (6 inches) will be possible in these areas, especially into the higher elevations.
In the southern U.K., France, northern Spain and northern Italy, rainfall totals of 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) are expected.
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Gusty winds are also expected with this storm through the end of the week and into the weekend. However, a track across the British Isles and over France will limit how much wind strength the storm is able to build.
"Wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph) are forecast across the southern coast of the United Kingdom and Ireland, western and southern France and northern Spain with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 97 km/h (60 mph)," added Richards.
If the storm is able to strengthen it could bring more widespread and stronger winds to parts of western Europe and could be designated as a windstorm. A storm is determined to be a windstorm if it's forecast to bring widespread impacts to a region. When it is officially recognized as a windstorm, it is then given a name by one of the many meteorological agencies in western Europe.
There are three separate European storm naming groups, according to the U.K. Met Office. The South Western group, which consists of Spain, Portugal, France and Belgium, will name the storm "Alex" if it reaches the windstorm threshold. The Western group, which consists of the U.K. Ireland, and Netherlands will name the storm Aiden, if necessary.
Even if the storm falls just below windstorm strength, it can still lead to areas of flash flooding, broken tree limbs, localized power outages and transportation delays.
Windstorms are most common from September through early April, but there is no official start and end date to the season as there is for the Atlantic hurricane season.
A windstorm in August took some in western Europe by surprise as it formed before the list of names for the 2020-2021 season was released. Officials at Met Éireann in Ireland chose to select the name Ellen for the early storm, which alphabetically was the next name from the 2019-2020 season's list.
Rarely issued "red status" wind warnings were sent out for parts of Ireland, while yellow and orange wind warnings extended across Wales and England. Portions of both Ireland and the U.K. experienced destructive flooding from Ellen.
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