By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep. 10, 2020 1:48 PM
As the frenzy of tropical activity continues to set early-formation records in the Atlantic with Paulette and Rene likely to be joined by multiple systems moving off the Africa coast in the coming days, there is also the potential for tropical development in Gulf of Mexico waters into early next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring two features near the United States coast for possible organization with some potential to become tropical depressions in the short term.
One disturbance was producing a mass of showers and thunderstorms east of the Bahamas on Thursday.
"This disturbance will move to the west to bring unsettled weather to parts of the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula Friday through Sunday," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
Beachgoers and boaters should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions that include sudden squalls, downpours and rough seas and surf, forecasters warned. The disturbance could produce a couple of isolated tornadoes and waterspouts as it moves westward across the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula.
"This area of disturbed weather will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and could attempt to become better organized during early next week," Kottlowski added.
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The water throughout the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, in the 80s to near 90 F, which is sufficiently warm to support development and strengthening of tropical systems.
A second area of disturbed weather, with potential for organization, was a slight swirl in the clouds, as well as showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
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This disturbance is forecast to take a somewhat curved path to the west and southwest into early next week, which would be a path over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of both disturbances as conditions could lead to quick organization and development.
Meanwhile, an area of concern that brewed southwest of Bermuda earlier this week will dissipate after moving onshore in eastern North Carolina on Thursday. This system has run out of time to develop into a tropical depression, despite moving over warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Wind shear prevented the system from becoming better organized.
Between the potential threats closer to home and many others emerging from the depths of the basin, an unusual occurrence that hasn't happened since September of 1971 may unfold in the coming weeks. As many as three to five named tropical systems may spin across the ocean at the same time by the middle of September.
As the busy 2020 Atlantic hurricane season switches into an even higher gear into the start of fall, it may also challenge the record number of named storms from the infamous 2005 season. That year brought 28 named storms. With the formations of Paulette and Rene this past week, there have been 18 named systems so far with several more likely to be named prior to the end of September. The last name on the list of English alphabet storms for 2020 is Wilford with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z being skipped.
Once the list based on the English alphabet is exhausted, Greek letters will be assigned as names, and that has only happened one other time in history, in 2005.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can form well beyond the statistical peak of hurricane season, which is Sept. 10-11.
Hurricane season does not officially end until the end of November, and named systems could emerge into December this year.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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