Haishen may become 1st super typhoon of 2020 on trek towards Japan, South Korea

 By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Sep. 3, 2020 10:33 AM

Typhoon Haishen is strengthening and may become the first super typhoon of the season in the western Pacific Ocean, but the storm's timing couldn't be worse, as it comes right on the heels of Typhoon Maysak, which made landfall in South Korea early Thursday, Sept. 3, local time.

The Korean Peninsula is bracing for its third significant typhoon strike within a week's time following Maysak and Typhoon Bavi, which made landfall in North Korea on Aug. 27. Residents still recovering from those two powerful storms will have little time to prepare for Haishen.

With light wind shear and very warm ocean waters along its track, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls expects Haishen to surpass Maysak as the strongest storm in the western Pacific so far this season. 

Nicholls also thinks it is possible that Haishen will become the first super typhoon of the season while across the open waters of the northern Philippine Sea.

Satellite shows Typhoon Haishen strengthening on Thursday night while churning to the south of Japan. RAMMB/CIRA

"Haishen could follow right behind Maysak and aim for southern Japan and the Korean Peninsula as early as this weekend, bringing a second dose of tropical impacts," Nicholls explained.

"This has the potential to be particularly devastating for some parts of southern Japan and South Korea as two strong typhoons, both the equivalent of major hurricanes in the Atlantic, could strike in almost the same spot in less than a week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda warned. 

“Any building or infrastructure that is weakened or sustained minor damage from Maysak could then be taken out by Haishen. There simply will not be enough time to repair and reinforce things,” Sojda added.

Areas expected to be at the greatest risk from Haishen will be from the northern Ryukyu Islands and southern Kyushu in Japan into southern and eastern South Korea. 

(Image/CIRA RAMMB)

These areas could go through devastating impacts in terms of widespread power outages, flooding, mudslides and extensive wind damage. 

Because of these anticipated impacts, Haishen is expected to be a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Tropical Cyclones in Japan and a 3 in South Korea. The RealImpact™ Scale is a six-point scale with ratings of less-than-1 and 1 to 5.

In comparison to the Saffir-Simpson scale, which has been used by meteorologists for decades and classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. The scale covers not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss. This communicates a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods.

Haishen is expected to be the equivalent strength to that of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale while crossing southern Japan and a Category 3 equivalent typhoon when making landfall in South Korea. Wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) are expected in both of these areas.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 240 km/h (150 mph) is possible and most likely across the northern Ryukyu Islands or the southern coast of Kyushu, dependent on the final track of Haishen. 

In addition to possibly becoming the strongest typhoon so far this year, Haishen is forecast to become the fifth named tropical system to make landfall in South Korea in 2020. Should this happen, the five landfalls would break the record number of landfalls in the country in a single year. 

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Widespread heavy rain will also fall across southern Japan, the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. Rainfall from Haishen, in addition to the recent heavy rain from Maysak, could lead to significant and widespread flooding.

Many areas along the path of the storm are expected to receive 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 400 mm (16 inches) is possible across southern Japan.

Widespread flooding across North Korea and China could lead to significant agricultural impacts and crop loss.

North Korea is a country that relies heavily on agriculture, so the threat for widespread flooding may put a strain on the country's food supply. 

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