By AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
Published Aug. 11, 2020 7:23 PM
The ‘dry heat’ in the Desert Southwest has been just that — dry. There has been very little rain this summer and the persistent dry conditions will contribute to unusually hot weather through much of the balance of August.
The summer is the hottest time of the year for the interior Southwest, but it can also bring some of the heaviest rains due to the Southwest monsoon, which runs from June 15 through Sept. 30. Thunderstorms during the monsoon can unload a significant amount of rain in just an hour or two, sparking flash flooding and kicking up disruptive dust storms.
However, the monsoon has been virtually non-existent this year with rainfall in cities such as Grand Junction, Colorado; Tucson, Arizona and Salt Lake City amounting to just a fraction of normal.
These prolonged dry spells have helped to promote hotter-than-normal weather, a pattern that is showing no signs of breaking.
“At the current time we are forecasting it to be the warmest August on record for both Phoenix and Tucson,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
Temperatures through the balance of the week are forecast to be 6 to 12 degrees above normal, making outdoor activities dangerous during the afternoon and early evening hours. Those that must be outside should plan to do so early in the morning.
Sultry sunshine will dominate the sky over the Four Corners due to an area of high pressure parked over the region.
“With the idea that the upper-level ridge will be centered across the Southwest for much of the second half of August, the heat looks to continue across the area,” Pastelok said.
"A high pressure area that sets up this way tends to block moisture from moving northward, rather than allowing to freely flow," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski added.
Heat records have already fallen in the ‘Valley of the Sun’ this summer with Phoenix setting a new record for the most days in a calendar year with a temperature at or above 110 F. Before 2020, the record was 33 days set back in 2011, but by Monday, Aug. 10, Phoenix had observed 35 days where the mercury reached 110 F.
The projected heat in the coming days will continue to add to that tally with high temperatures topping out above the 110-degree mark nearly every day through at least the weekend. Temperatures of this magnitude could challenge daily records each afternoon.
"No matter show you slice it, this is now the hottest summer to date in Phoenix, Arizona," the National Weather Service office in Phoenix said on Tuesday.
More of the same is on tap next week, which may make some residents wonder if the heat will linger into the autumn.
"The duration of this wave of record heat will be impressive, beginning around the middle of the week and lasting right into next week. This can put a strain on visitors to the area and perhaps even some long-time residents," AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said.
The heat could expand even farther north early next week with a heat wave potentially developing as far north as Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
Moderate-to-severe drought conditions have developed over most of the Four Corners, according to the United States Drought Monitor, and the conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.
“The drier the ground is, the hotter the temperature gets,” Pastelok said. “That is why many records in the second half of August are at risk, as many of them are around 113 F in Phoenix and range between 107 and 110 in Tucson.”
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When moisture from the monsoon finally makes a comeback across the Southwest, it could be a double-edged sword.
The rain will be welcomed by areas experiencing drought conditions, but lightning from thunderstorms could spark wildfires across the region.
Lightning is to blame for starting the Pine Gulch Fire on July 31 just a few miles north of Grand Junction, Colorado. This blaze has already scorched more than 36,000 acres and is barely contained as it spreads across rough, remote terrain.
Earlier this week, smoke from the fire was so intense that it created its own clouds, known as pyrocumulus. These clouds were able to be seen from all across the region, including the National Weather Service office based in Grand Junction.
This is just one of dozens of fires being tracked across the western U.S. by InciWeb.
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