Published Aug. 25, 2020 8:37 AM | Updated Aug. 25, 2020 9:29 PM
Hurricane Laura continued intensifying by the hour overnight and forecasts for the first major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season have reflected that rapid strengthening. As the storm begins bearing down on the United States, scattering nearly 600,000 residents from coastal communities around Texas and Louisiana, experts are warning of the potentially devastating storm surge and destructive winds that Laura’s wrath may pack.
After being upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, Laura’s strength grew rapidly from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning as it now packs 115-mph winds, and is a Category 3 storm. While forecasters still expect Laura to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border as a Category 3 hurricane, some believe the storm could reach Category 4 strength as it moves over the favorably warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico before weakening slightly just before landfall late Wednesday night.
Along with the half million-plus residential evacuations, the looming Laura worry has also forced the evacuation of livestock. AccuWeather National Reporter Jonathan Petramala spoke with ranchers in southwestern Louisiana who have had to urgently gather cattle and move them to higher ground with the devastating memory of Hurricane Rita from 15 years ago still lingering.
The storm is rated a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes, a new method the company introduced in 2019 to better assess the overall potential damage a storm could cause than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which only factors in wind impacts.
The hurricane has the potential to cause significant damage and widespread power outages in southwestern Louisiana and along the upper Texas coast. Roads may be impassable and the power could be out for days after the storm.
As a result of the forecast, hurricane warnings were in effect for places along the Gulf Coast from San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
Some neighborhoods could sustain catastrophic damage due to powerful winds combined with storm surge flooding and wave action on top of the storm surge.
"At this time we feel the greatest threat to lives and property from Laura is from storm surge flooding," AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, Dan Kottlowski, said.
The coastal inundation from the storm surge could approach 15 feet around Cameron, Louisiana. A storm surge of that magnitude, combined with wave action, would be high enough to enter and devastate the second story of structures located along the coast. Waters will begin to rise and some coastal roads can become flooded well in advance of the center of the storm's arrival on the coast.
Storm surge flooding can occur as far to the the east as coastal Mississippi and as far to the southwest as Galveston.
Near and just east of where the eye of Laura makes landfall, there is the potential that the storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline.
The impact from Laura could be similar Hurricane Rita, which was slightly larger, in 2005. However, Laura was not only getting stronger, but also growing in overall size on Wednesday.
This image, captured before sunrise on Wednesday, August 26, 2020, shows a well-organized and strengthening Hurricane Laura over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. A distinctive eye can be seen.. (NOAA/Goes-East)
Rita was the last major hurricane to hit near the border of Louisiana and Texas and produced a maximum storm surge of 18 feet. Hurricane Ike in 2008 hit farther south on Galveston Island, Texas, as a Category 2 storm.
In terms of economic impact, "AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by Laura will be $25-30 billion and could be higher should it shift further west closer to Houston, the fourth-largest U.S. city," AccuWeather founder and CEO Joel N. Myers said. The estimate is based on an analysis incorporating independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm and is based on a variety of sources, statistics, and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate damage.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe Laura will make landfall between midnight and 3 a.m. CDT Thursday near the Louisiana and Texas border.
Meteorologists are urging all residents are to pay attention to evacuation orders from local officials. Time is running out for people along the coast to evacuate as waters will be on the rise through Wednesday night.
The first mandatory evacuation order was issued Tuesday ahead of the storm's arrival. Galveston Mayor Craig Brown signed a mandatory evacuation Tuesday as Laura barreled toward the Texas coastline. The mandatory evacuation went into effect at 6 a.m. local time on Tuesday, and the city has urged residents to leave the island within six hours of the order being signed and to take with them “all family members and pets.”
Elsewhere along the Gulf Coast, residents in Louisiana prepared for the storm by boarding up windows. In Cameron, Louisiana, a coastal town about 135 miles east of Houston, Texas, residents were seen evacuating on Monday. Oil refineries across the Gulf were shut down amid all of the tropical activity over the Gulf -- first from Marco and later from Laura. All told, nearly 600,000 in Texas and Louisiana were told to flee the approaching storm.
"Another concern, high on our list as a significant threat, is from tornadoes," Kottlowski said.
The tornado risk will increase just prior to landfall and remain a significant threat perhaps up to 48 hours after landfall near and east of the track of the center of the storm, mainly over the lower Mississippi Valley.
Laura left behind damage and flooding while it pushed across the northern Caribbean as a tropical storm. At least 13 deaths have been blamed on Laura, four of which occurred in the Dominican Republic and nine in Haiti. Several remained missing on Monday.
Although some gusty showers and thunderstorms on the outer periphery of the storm reached the Florida Keys on Monday night, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph, the brunt of Laura's wrath is set to charge toward parts of the central and northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
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Laura will take a curved path into the central Gulf of Mexico around a strengthening and westward-extending high pressure system, known as the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure area.
"Laura will briefly track over the shallow wake of cooler water left in the Gulf from Marco; this might slow Laura's intensification process but only briefly," Kottlowski said. "Then, Laura will be over very warm water and in a low wind shear environment, which will favor strengthening."
Kottlowski also mentioned that this favorable region may allow Laura to "rapidly strengthen," opening up the possibility for Laura to briefly become a major hurricane at Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The storm is expected to strike near the Texas-Louisiana border late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Impacts are forecast to reach the southern coasts of Louisiana first early on Wednesday morning in the form of torrential, tropical rainfall and gusty winds.
The strongest winds will likely be near the center and just to the east of the eye of the storm. Hurricane-force winds are expected to begin as Laura strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday night.
Damaging winds will reach the central Gulf Coast at midweek, with wind gusts of 100-120 mph near where Laura makes landfall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 140 mph.
"These winds can cause power outages and damage to structures and trees," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.
Trees that are sitting in soil that has already been saturated by Marco will be more susceptible to being toppled in Laura's fierce winds.
"Even with a glancing blow in Houston, winds could approach hurricane-force over the high buildings in the downtown area with the likelihood of power outages and property damage down below," Kottlowski said. "Impact could be greater in the Houston area if the storm shifts it's track farther to the west."
In addition to wind, Laura will also bring life-threatening flooding from rainfall.
"Rainfall from Laura may fall across the same places that received tremendous rainfall from Marco, further exacerbating the flooding situation along the Gulf coast," Rossio said.
The combination of Marco's heavy rain from the western Florida Panhandle to central Louisiana and another round of tropical downpours from Laura could make some areas more susceptible than usual to flooding.
From Laura alone, the highest rainfall totals of 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches will be most likely in southern Louisiana.
As is typically the case with a land-falling tropical system, isolated tornadoes will be possible north and east of the center of the storm. In addition, the Louisiana coastline is likely to take another battering with rough surf, beach erosion and significant coastal flooding from storm surge.
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Laura is likely to still pack a punch in terms of wind and rain as it tracks through the Mississippi and Ohio valleys late in the week. Enough rain can fall in these areas to produce flash flooding, and wind damage and isolated tornadoes will still be possible.
There is even a chance Laura regains tropical storm status, if the circulation center survives the trip over the Appalachians and then wanders off the mid-Atlantic coast late this weekend.
Laura developed in the Atlantic just a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Friday morning, shattering the record for the earliest "L"-named storm on record in the basin. The previous "L" storm record was held by Luis, which formed on Aug. 29, 1995.
Prior to Laura's formation, Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle had all set new records for their designated letters in 2020.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect a hyperactive peak hurricane season, which is now underway, and like the notorious 2005 season, Greek letters may be needed beyond the designated list of names for the 2020 season. AccuWeather meteorologists are calling for up to 24 tropical storms, 11 of which could strengthen into hurricanes, this season.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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