Updated Jul. 19, 2020 1:58 PM
The tropics are quiet around much of the world right now, but there is one area in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that warrants forecasters' attention.
Despite a lull of organized tropical activity this past week, such as depressions, storms or hurricanes, several tropical waves have been sweeping from Central America into the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
"While there are no organized systems in the region right now, there are several waves we continue to monitor as they move through the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin into Tuesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker.
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Despite the warm waters that the waves will travel through, wind shear in the area will likely be too strong to make tropical development possible close to land, like southern Mexico or Central America.
Wind shear is the change in the speed of the movement of air at different levels in the atmosphere and the change in direction of airflow across the horizontal part of the atmosphere. When wind shear is strong, it can prevent a tropical storm from forming or cause a hurricane or tropical storm to weaken.
There is one zone, with less hostile conditions and lesser wind shear, between 120 West and 135 West that could be just calm enough for tropical activity in the coming days.
"As the tropical wave moves into this zone, there is moderate potential for the wave to become more organized, and could become a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Given how this location is in the middle of the East Pacific, it is unlikely to impact land, whether it develops or not. Shipping interests, however, should note that rougher seas may be present nearby.
By Tuesday evening, local time, the tropical wave will likely have run out of time to develop and will instead continue its course westward towards the Central Pacific Ocean.
However, this same zone will remain conducive to tropical development, could be a spot where tropical development could happen later this week.
"As the week progresses, another tropical wave could track westward into almost the same area as the first wave," Douty added.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring this zone through the end of the week.
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The next system to reach tropical storm strength in the East Pacific Ocean will be given the name Douglas. A tropical depression grows into a tropical storm when its sustained winds reach 39 mph (63 kph).
On average, it is normal for there to be about four named storms in the Eastern Pacific Ocean by July 14. Last year, the fourth-named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Dalila, which was named on July 23, 2019.
It's been a slow-starting season for hurricane formation in the basin. According to Colorado State Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, only five previous hurricane seasons in recorded history have had zero hurricanes through July 14 in the East Pacific. Those years were 1968, 1987, 2003, 2004 and 2007.
Tropical Storm Cristina nearly became the first hurricane of 2020 last week, but it fell just short of Category 1 hurricane strength.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean basin, named tropical systems are running ahead of normal so far this year. The last storm was Fay, which made landfall in New Jersey earlier this month as a tropical storm. Fay made history when it formed, becoming the earliest sixth-named storm in the Atlantic Ocean on record.
Despite a brief pause in the tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, those in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast are on alert for possible tropical development this week.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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