A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is increasingly likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it approaches the western Gulf Coast on Friday, bringing locally heavy rain, gusty winds and the potential for some high surf and coastal flooding.
The disturbance, dubbed Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center, is denoted by the "X" in the map below.
(MORE: What is an Invest? Hurricane Season Terms You Need to Know)
Satellite imagery now shows a broad area of low pressure at the surface has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. However, for now, the thunderstorms near that low-pressure area are not sufficiently organized for the NHC to deem this a tropical depression or storm, yet.
This system will track steadily west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico in the general direction of the Texas Coast.
There is some chance the system could reach tropical storm status before moving inland over Texas sometime Friday or Saturday.
Its remnant is expected to continue drifting west over parts of Texas, possibly into northern Mexico into early next week.
Potential Impacts
Regardless of development, the main impact from this system appears to be a threat of locally heavy rainfall.
Typical of weaker systems, this one may be a bit lopsided, with most of its bands of showers and thunderstorms along and to the east of its path. Areas to the southwest of its path may see much less rainfall.
Parts of the Gulf Coast, particularly the Texas and Louisiana coasts, could see bands of showers and thunderstorms from this system through at least Friday, if not into Saturday.
Additional rainfall totals of an inch or more are most likely along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. Locally heavy rain might also spread into parts of south-central Texas by this weekend.
Despite some rain from the past day or so from a separate tropical disturbance, this part of the Gulf Coast has been dry recently, and can absorb at least some modest additional rainfall. So, at this time, the threat for flash flooding appears to be localized, rather than widespread.
Locally heavy rain is also possible in parts of central and South Texas this weekend from the remnant of this system, including the San Antonio metro area and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. This is an uncertain forecast at this time, depending on the exact track of the low.
Rainfall ForecastPersistent winds blowing onshore to the east of the system may produce areas of high surf, rip currents and possibly some minor coastal flooding, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast. Keep this in mind if you're spending time on the beaches.
(MORE: The Danger of Rip Currents)
It's too soon to detail the system's wind potential, as that depends on its eventual strength, which is a bit uncertain.
The bottom line is this potential tropical development is nothing to be overly concerned about.
But it should be a reminder that the typical peak of hurricane season is just around the corner and you should have a preparedness plan in place.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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