Beyond Isaias: Atlantic stirs up new tropical depression

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Jul. 31, 2020 10:29 PM

Hurricane Isaias is currently garnering the most attention from forecasters as the storm navigates through the southwest Atlantic on its way toward the United States, where is it is expected to impact the East Coast into the middle of next week.

However, Isaias has some company on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean with the development of a new tropical system.

On Friday afternoon at 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Ten took shape about 200 miles off the west coast of Africa. However, the newly-formed system only has a small window to strengthen into a named tropical storm.

"Conditions [are] expected to become less favorable by Saturday as this feature moves northward," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

If the tropical depression does strengthen into a tropical storm before encountering these disruptive conditions, it would take on the name Josephine.

AccuWeather's team of tropical forecasters is monitoring another area located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The system is moving to the west and producing limited shower activity.

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Miller said this feature is expected to move slowly through the southwestern Atlantic and may eventually bring some impacts to Bermuda late next week. Similar to the feature near the Cabo Verde islands, there is a low chance for additional development over the next 48 hours.

This image shows the Atlantic Ocean on July 31, 2020, around 5 p.m. EDT. The arrows indicate the location of Tropical Depression Ten near Africa and a disturbance in the middle of the ocean that could strengthen. (NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical wave closer to the Lesser Antilles a 30 % chance of developing over the next five days.

Since the Cabo Verde season is now well underway, there will be a risk of other disturbances that could take on tropical characteristics in the next couple of weeks. The Cabo Verde season is a period of time when tropical waves, which move off the Africa coast, are most active. The Cabo Verde islands, for which the season is named, lie just off the west coast of Africa.

While the period from late August through the middle of September marks the most dramatic increase in tropical activity on an annual basis, the 2020 season has already demonstrated that this will be a well-above-average season.

AccuWeather lead tropical forecaster Dan Kottlowski and his colleagues say there is a chance that this year could become "hyperactive" in terms of the storms that develop. Up to 24 named tropical systems are possible, according to the tropical team's latest long-range outlook. This would be close to the record-setting 2005 season in which 28 storms developed.

Nine named storms have already formed, including two hurricanes, which is well ahead of the traditional pace. Six out of nine of the tropical storms to date have been record-setters in terms of early formation for their respective letters. In some years, there aren't enough named systems to make it this deep into the rotating list of Atlantic tropical names.

Kottlowski pointed out that four named storms have already made landfall in the U.S. before the end of July, and a fifth, Arthur, brought some impacts to North Carolina in May.

“That’s very remarkable through July,” Kottlowski said. “It’s very unusual for us to see that many impacts, landfalls especially, so early in the season.”

It’s not just meteorologists who need to keep a close eye on how storms develop and where they’re heading. AccuWeather users can now do that from home using our local hurricane tracker pages that provide detailed information about a specific location.

Click on the city name to track how Isaias will impact each place as it churns northward: Miami, Florida; Daytona Beach Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Hilton Head, South Carolina; Virginia Beach, Virginia; Ocean City, New Jersey; New York City; Boston, Massachusetts.

Record-challenging, triple-digit heat to sear portions of Pacific Northwest

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jul. 31, 2020 10:05 PM

After several days of temperatures in the 90s over interior portions of the Pacific Northwest, meteorologists say that the highest temperatures are yet to come.

As the jet stream lifts farther north and high pressure builds over the West, high temperatures are forecast to be over 100 degrees in some locations through Friday. Temperatures that high are likely to challenge records in several cities.

"Places such as Boise, Idaho, and Pendleton, Oregon, will challenge their record highs on Thursday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

As it turned out, Boise reached 105 degrees, just shy of the record of 106 set in 2003. Pendleton, however, climbed to 109 degrees, surpassing the record of 107 set in 1929.

While caution is always advised in hot weather, temperatures in the 100s are not common in the Northwest, and will make it even more difficult for people to adapt.

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"Anyone with outdoor plans such as going for a run or walking their dog should try to do so early in the morning or late in the evening toward sunset to avoid peak heating hours during the middle of the day," Pydynowski advised.

Since high pressure helps to promote sinking air, it is difficult for clouds to build. With few if any clouds, rain will not fall. Unfortunately, dry weather is not what the region needs.

"Much of Northern California, Oregon and eastern Washington is already under a moderate to severe drought and the upcoming weather pattern does not look to bring any relief as a large dome of high pressure will keep much of the Northwest dry into next week," said Pydynowski. "Any rain chances will likely remain confined to mainly western Washington into early next week," he added.

The drought has been building for quite some time. This caused some fireworks displays to be canceled back on July Fourth, and burn bans have been implemented in some locations.

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"The dry weather has led to a burn ban in many areas," said Pydynowski. "Even in areas without a burn ban, anyone doing outdoor activities this weekend such as camping or grilling should avoid having open fires given how dry the vegetation is across the region."

Heading into the weekend, slightly lower temperatures will occur in the Northwest as the high pressure weakens slightly. However, highs in the 90s will still be common and locations such as Boise will likely still be near 100. In most areas, these temperatures will fall short of records.

A more significant lowering of temperatures is expected by early next week thanks to a dip in the jet stream, with temperatures likely near or even slightly below normal.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

At least 1 death blamed on Isaias in Dominican Republic

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Jul. 31, 2020 8:51 PM

Hurricane Isaias is garnering attention for its potential landfall on the United States coast this weekend, but it smacked another U.S. area first. On Thursday morning, Isaias, then a tropical storm, dumped flood-inducing rain and drove heavy winds into Puerto Rico, leaving hundreds of thousands without power before eventually making landfall in the Dominican Republic, where it was blamed for at least one fatality.

According to Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority, more than 300,000 customers woke up in the dark Thursday as electricity was knocked out across much of the island. Maximum sustained winds as strong as 60 mph were recorded as trees were toppled, roofs were damaged and frightening memories from Hurricane Maria were stirred up.

Adding to the Puerto Ricans' fears is that many of those roofs were never fully repaired after Maria, with blue tarps serving as an ominous reminder of what was devastated in the past and what continues to be threatened on Thursday.

In its 11 a.m. advisory, the National Weather Service office of Puerto Rico warned that the flood threats and strong winds presented a life-threatening situation for Puerto Ricans.

José Pagán told The Associated Press that he didn't expect the impacts to be as severe as they were, but he experienced some flooding in his home and a loss of power.

“I didn’t think it was going to be this strong,” he told the AP. “It’s a rather difficult experience because it reminds us of Maria.”

Photos and video circulated on social media throughout Thursday morning of roadways completely washed over and floodwaters reaching buildings.

In Trujillo Alto, about 15 miles southwest of the capital city of San Juan, three gates on the Carraízo reservoir dam were opened in order to relieve the excess runoff from the storm.

A total of 10.36 inches of rain was recorded in La Plaza, Caguas, while four other rain gauges recorded upwards of 9 inches.

The heavy rain not only caused flash floods but also triggered small landslides. Footage of one such landslide was captured in Limon, Mayaguez, located on the western half of the territory.

In addition, rivers rose rapidly due to the excessive rainfall.

The Rio Grande De Manati near Ciales, Puerto Rico rose from 3 feet on Thursday morning to 12.77 feet by Thursday afternoon. The river level rapidly rose by as much as 1.02 feet per hour.

Elsewhere in Puerto Rico, the Rio Guanajibo River near the town of Hormigueros went from a level of 11 feet on Thursday morning to 23.5 feet by the afternoon. At one point, the river was rising by as much as 1.35 feet per hour.

"Isaias was moving over the island of Hispaniola with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph during Thursday midday and was racing northwestward at 20 mph," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "The tropical storm was less than 50 miles away from Punta Cana, Dominican Republic."

The storm lashed the Dominican Republic with heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds. Forecasters said it made landfall there on Thursday afternoon. At least one death was blamed on Isaias' impacts. According to The Associated Press, a man was killed after being electrocuted by a downed power line.

By late Thursday evening, Isaias had become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and was moving northwestward at 18 mph and away from Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The hurricane was about 70 miles east-southeast of Great Inagua Island which is located north of the northwestern tip of Haiti.

Early on Friday morning, the hurricane still had sustained winds of 80 mph, moving northwestward at 17 mph. However, as the day went on, Isaias' sustained winds weakened slightly before regaining its strength, though its sped slowed to 15 mph. As of Friday evening, the storm was about 175 miles south-southeast of Nassau, the capital city of the Bahamas.

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As Isaias tracks toward the Turks and Caicos in the southern and middle Bahamas, there is dry air and [wind shear]. So that may inhibit rapid strengthening according to AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

After traveling through the Bahamas on Friday, the storm is forecast to turn northward, and come very close to the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

Isaias could generate flooding downpours in Northeast next week

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jul. 31, 2020 3:04 PM

After bringing torrential rain and damaging winds to the Bahamas and part of the Florida east coast this weekend, Isaias is likely to have some impact on the northeastern United States next week following a potential landfall in the Carolinas on Monday.

The ninth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Tropical season, Isaias formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday evening. Northern islands of the Caribbean have been battered by heavy rainfall and strong winds, with the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S coast likely to feel the storm's wrath next. Isaias strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane just north of Hispaniola during Thursday night and is forecast to tread bath-like waters between Florida and the Bahamas this weekend.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect Isaias to track along, just inland or just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England spanning Monday night to Wednesday. The exact track of the tropical system will determine the scope of the rain, intensity of the wind and the magnitude of the storm surge in the region.

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Ahead of Isaias, rounds of wet weather will start to chip away at the drought conditions in the Northeast, thanks to a pattern change that will allow some Gulf of Mexico moisture to flow northward and Atlantic moisture to seep inland. Some of the driest areas so far this summer include portions of Maine down through New England into the Hudson Valley, as well as portions of central Pennsylvania and New York state.

Away from Isaias, several storms will follow the jet stream through the Northeast, allowing for waves of rain and thunderstorms from Saturday through early next week.

Not every location from Virginia to Maine will get wet weather through this entire timeframe, but most locations are likely to get at least a round or two of rain.

"Saturday looks unsettled and humid for mid-Atlantic cities like Washington, D.C., and Baltimore but still rather dry with more comfortable humidity levels from Pennsylvania on north," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek.

Dombek added that while it looks wetter in the rest of the Northeast on Sunday, forecasts currently don't indicate that it would be an all-day washout. However, thunderstorms that erupt over parts of eastern New York state and western New England could be locally severe with high winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

A front will move into the region on Monday, stalling late Monday into Tuesday near the Eastern Seaboard, putting it on a collision course with Isaias.

"Non-tropical systems, such as the one moving in from the Midwest, have drawn tropical storms and hurricanes close to and inland of the coast in the past, so there is still some risk of track along or just inland over the Northeast," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

"Should this occur, heavy rain could be flung well inland of the coast and tropical storm to hurricane-force winds could occur along the coast from Virginia to Maine," Sosnowski added.

However, the speed of either the front or Isaias could greatly impact what the forecast looks like in the coming days.

If Isaias were to speed up and reach the Northeast sooner, when steering winds are more southerly as opposed to westerly, it might bring enhanced rainfall farther inland. Should Isaias slow down or the front move a little faster, the greatest of Isaias's impacts could remain offshore.

"Some of the rich tropical moisture associated with this storm is forecast to be pulled northward and interact with the stalled front regardless, resulting in a more enhanced period of showers and thunderstorms," Dombek added.

The enhanced thunderstorms will have a higher chance of producing drenching downpours that could result in localized flooding problems.

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The combination of a pattern change and any additional moisture from Isaias could bust the drought in part of the region before the end of the first week of August.

While the rain could be a benefit for the region, too much rain might trigger dangerous flash flooding.

"Should too much rain fall in the same place in a short period of time, the dry ground will struggle to absorb all the water it desperately needs," said Dombek.

Low-lying and poor drainage areas will be the most susceptible to these flooding problems first.

"The heavy urban areas along the Interstate-95 corridor to the Atlantic coast, where there is a great deal of paved surfaces will stand the greatest chance of street and highway flooding in this situation," Sosnowski said.

"If we get a situation where there is a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane that hugs the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, storm surge flooding could be a player for a brief time," Sosnowski added.

The full moon is on Monday, and is a time of the month and roughly when astronomical tides are the highest. The arrival of Isaias will be a day or two later it appears and a worst-case scenario should be avoided.

Tides of 1-2 feet above normal are possible in this case, but are likely to be higher, perhaps 3-6 feet above normal in southeastern Virginia, where Isaias may be close by during Monday evening and storm surge flooding could be more significant in the region.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

Paris tops 100 F as London challenges all-time record high

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Jul. 31, 2020 1:12 PM

A stifling heat wave that gradually built throughout much of western Europe this week produced some of the warmest conditions of the year so far. Triple-digit temperatures were recorded in some of the continent's biggest cities, while the U.K. capital of London was on the threshold of an all-time record high on Friday.

"An area of high pressure that built over western Europe on Wednesday will move into central Europe by the start of the weekend," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

As this high pressure expanded northward, temperatures surged across western Europe on Friday. Highs in the (upper 80s to upper 90s F) were common across southern England, France, western Germany, Spain, Switzerland and Italy into the afternoon hours.

According to Roys, this could be the hottest day for London in recorded history with some thermometers in the city topping out at 37 C (99 F).

The current record high temperature was set of 1 July, 2015 when the temperature reached 36.7 C (98 F).

Some locations in France and Spain climbed above the 38 degree C (100 degree F) mark to end the week, including Paris which reached 39 C (102 F) for about an hour.

This is the first time the city has seen heat of this degree since it reached 40 C (104 F) and 42 C (108 F) in July of 2019.

Madrid hit 41.2 C (106 F) on Monday for only the third time in its history. July 13, 2017 and Aug.10, 2012 were the only other times Madrid reached that mark, according to Roys.

Temperatures across western Europe have been on the rise throughout the week.

Temperatures crept higher across France on Wednesday and Thursday, with the sweltering levels waiting for the second half of the week. Temperatures in the upper 20s C (upper 70s and lower 80s F) on Tuesday were replaced with highs in the 30s to near 40 C (middle 80s to lower 100s F), mainly across southern locations, on Thursday.

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"As for Italy, there will be widespread 30s C (90s F) outside of the mountains, including many coastal locations, through the end of the week. The interior valleys in central Italy will try to reach around 38 C (100 F) by Friday," Roys said.

Widespread highs in the 30s and lower 40s C (90s and lower 100s F) also returned to Spain and eastern Portugal this week.

While these are above-normal temperatures for the end of July, it is not out of the ordinary for the season so far. Early last week, thermometers across Spain had similar readings.

Normal high temperatures for the end of July across western Europe range from 22 C (71 F) in London, United Kingdom, to 30 C (86 F) in Madrid, Spain.

These temperatures carry the risk of causing heat-related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke. Anyone spending extended periods of time outside should stay hydrated and take breaks from the heat in the shade or indoors. Any strenuous activity should try to be scheduled for early mornings or late evenings, out of the heat of the day.

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While temperature were on the rise across France, so were confirmed coronavirus cases as the country marked a 54 percent increase in cases in mainland France since last week, according to The Guardian.

"There was also an increase in the number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, and the figures for those requiring intensive care went up by one – the first time the figure has increased in 16 weeks," stated the report.

The Guardian added that most of the new cases are believed to be due to large family gatherings as well as private and public events.

"Of those testing positive 69% were aged 15-44 and of those the biggest increase was among 20- to 25-year-olds," according to the report.

In addition to continued social distancing, officials have been urging people to weak masks despite the searing heat expected to continue into the weekend.

By the beginning of the weekend, a cold front is forecast to sweep across northwestern Europe, bringing temperatures back to normal levels across the U.K.

Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue elsewhere in western Europe through at least the weekend.

This may not be the end of the heat as August arrives. According to Roys, the threat of more heat remains through the middle of the month.

In addition to a weather pattern that will promote above normal temperatures across France and Germany, a dry ground due to below normal rainfall across these areas during much of the spring and summer will allow temperatures to once again reach for 35 C (95 F) or higher by the middle of the month.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.