Updated Jun. 1, 2020 2:10 PM
Almost two weeks after Cyclone Amphan turned deadly and rampaged across parts of northeastern India, another part of the country is on high alert for a developing tropical system.
An area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea strengthened to a depression on Monday morning, local time, and AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate further strengthening of this tropical feature in the coming days.
"Warm water and light wind shear will favor the system becoming Cyclonic Storm Nisarga by Tuesday, local time," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
As it strengthens, a storm sweeping through central Asia is ultimately expected to bring the drifting tropical system to the northeast, through the eastern Arabian Sea and to the west coast of India into the middle of the week.
The western shores of India and any
In anticipation of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas from the potential tropical system, officials have suggested that fishing operations should be suspended into the middle of the week.
The government in Gujarat announced on Monday evening that they were deploying 10 of India's National Disaster Response Force teams in anticipation of the storm.
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At this time, forecasters are anticipating a landfall along the coasts of southern Gujarat to Maharashira around midday on Wednesday. By this time, budding Nisarga could be a cyclonic storm.
"Wind gusts as high as 120 to 130 km/h (75 to 80 mph) would be possible near the landfall point, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Ocean basins," Nicholls added.
Should this tropical system take this course, with such powerful winds, it would be an unprecedented event.
"There have been no cyclonic storms that struck Mumbai/Bombay during the pre-monsoon period (May-June)," said Nicholls.
Nicholls added that a total of three cyclonic storms have ever made landfall over or near Mumbai since 1891, and all three occurred in October and November. The latest was Phyan in 2009.
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In addition to destructive winds, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall are likely across India.
Into Thursday night, local time, widespread rainfall amounts of 50 to 100 mm (2-4 inches) are possible across southern Gujarat and Maharashtra, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches).
People make their way through damaged cables and a tree branch fallen in the middle of a road after Cyclone Amphan hit Kolkata, in eastern India, Thursday, May 21, 2020. A powerful cyclone ripped through densely populated coastal India and Bangladesh, blowing off roofs and whipping up waves that swallowed embankments and bridges and left entire villages without access to fresh water, electricity and communications. (AP Photo/Bikas Das)
The track through the end of the week, after the tropical system makes landfall, is less certain. So at this time, all residents in India should be monitoring this budding tropical storm.
The Arabian Sea remains active, with another tropical low currently targeting the Arabian Peninsula through midweek with heavy rainfall.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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