NASA astronauts could stay grounded as rain, lightning threaten Saturday's SpaceX launch

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer

Updated May. 30, 2020 9:25 AM

NASA and SpaceX are once again counting down to the first-crewed rocket launch from the United States in nearly a decade. However, bad weather could force the highly anticipated mission to be delayed yet again.

This weekend’s mission to space will be the first time that humans are blasting off from Florida since 2011 when the Space Shuttle program came to an end. Since then, astronauts have been hitching a ride on Russian rockets to get to and from the International Space Station.

Liftoff is scheduled for Saturday, May 30 at 3:22 p.m. EDT, but stormy weather is threatening to delay the launch.

NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said the agency is moving forward with the launch from Kennedy Space Center, but there is a 50% chance of cancellation due to weather. SpaceX CEO Elon Must acknowledged the weather concern by tweeting "Proceeding with countdown today, weather cancellation risk ~50%."

At least 150,000 people gathered in communities surrounding NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral on Wednesday, May 27, with hopes of seeing the historic launch for themselves.

Astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley were strapped into their seats atop the Falcon 9 rocket and were ready for liftoff, but shortly before the countdown clock hit zero, the threat of lightning forced the launch to be scrubbed and postponed until the weekend.

Even larger crowds could turn out along Florida's "Space Coast" for the Saturday afternoon launch.

NASA Aatronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley sit in the Crew Dragon space capsule atop the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on Wednesday, May 27. The launch attempt was postponed due to the threat of lightning. (SpaceX)

Unfortunately, the prospects for good weather on Saturday do not look much better than they did earlier in the week.

Clouds and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Saturday afternoon with just a 50% chance of the weather being good enough to launch, according to the 45th Weather Squadron. This squadron is a team of Air Force meteorologists that are responsible for weather forecasts for each rocket launch at Cape Canaveral.

Rain and lightning are the primary weather concerns as they pose a danger to the rocket and the crew.

Even if the weather at the launch pad is clear for launch on Saturday afternoon, bad weather downrange can force the mission to be postponed again.

If the crew has to abort the mission shortly after takeoff, the astronauts need to be able to safely splash down in the Atlantic Ocean and wait for recovery crews to arrive. This cannot be done safely if there is stormy weather or rough seas.

In the event that Saturday’s launch is scrubbed, the next launch opportunity will be on Sunday, May 31, at 3 p.m. EDT.

Storm clouds pass over the Vehicle Assembly Building as the SpaceX Falcon 9, with the Crew Dragon spacecraft on top of the rocket, sits on Launch Pad 39-A Wednesday, May 27, 2020, at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The weather forecast is looking slightly better on Sunday if the launch is delayed. The probability for acceptable weather for launch on Sunday increases to 60%, but there is still the risk for rain and lightning.

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The highly anticipated launch could re-shape the spaceflight industry as it will open the door for NASA to once again launch American astronauts from American-built rockets from American soil. This will also be the first time that a private space company is launching astronauts into space on a mission to the ISS.

An AccuWeather futurecast image shows scattered precipitation in the area of the Cape Canaveral at launch time. (AccuWeather)

“Demo-2 is the final major test for SpaceX’s human spaceflight system to be certified by NASA for operational crew missions to and from the International Space Station,” SpaceX said. “SpaceX is returning human spaceflight to the United States with one of the safest, most advanced systems ever built, and NASA’s Commercial Crew Program is a turning point for America’s future in space exploration that lays the groundwork for future missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond.”

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This launch will also be significant for Hurley, who was a crew member of the final Space Shuttle mission back in 2011.

"I certainly didn't expect to fly again, (and) I certainly didn't necessarily have a plan to fly again," Hurley said in an interview with USA Today. "Once again, I think Bob and I are very humbled to be in this position."

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