India, Bangladesh keeping a close eye on developing cyclonic storm in Bay of Bengal

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated May. 15, 2020 1:51 PM

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While a tropical low in the Bay of Bengal has been slow to develop, it is likely to strengthen into a dangerous cyclonic storm in the coming days. 

The low, which has churned at a glacial pace near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands since last week, brought some locations, including Banda Aceh, a total of 11.89 inches of rain (302 mm) in just a few days last week.

"There is now a well-defined low circulation around the tropical low in the Bay of Bengal, showing it is slowly starting to strengthen," said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Satellite shows low pressure becoming better organized across the Bay of Bengal on Friday afternoon, local time. (Photo: CIRA/RAMMB)

Late in the day on Thursday, local time, the India Meteorological Department designated this storm as a well-marked low, signaling that this feature continues to organize. 

Traveling through a region with warm waters and low wind shear, the system is likely to strengthen in the coming days.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Houk thinks the storm can reach the intensity of a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale).

He adds, "It could even reach Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm intensity, which is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane."

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The most likely track appears to be to the north which will put northeastern India and Bangladesh at the greatest risk of life-threatening impacts.

Due to some uncertainties, locations from east-central India to Myanmar should all monitor the situation. Residents from West Bengal into Bangladesh should begin making preparations for the storm, especially given the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Residents should prepare for damaging wind gusts and flooding rainfall. Due to the low elevation of southern Bangladesh, widespread coastal flooding is expected to be a significant threat.

As the storm gathers strength, seas will become dangerously rough across the central and northern Bay of Bengal.

Preparedness plans may take longer than usual to put into place, and should a storm approach during a continued lockdown, shelters may cause residents to huddle in larger groups than what is normally allowed.

In the beginning of May, India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, extended the world's largest lockdown until May 18. The country recently experienced its largest single-day spike in COVID-19 related deaths. However, the nation's recovery rate is improving.  

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It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea during the beginning of May. Tropical activity usually increases before the arrival of India's southwest monsoon.

"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form any time of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," Nicholls said.