Updated Apr. 20, 2020 2:50 PM
Severe weather has been on the rampage across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South in recent weeks, but severe weather threats will aim a bit farther west prior to midweek.
A disturbance will move out of the southern Rockies on Tuesday and cause rain and thunderstorms to erupt along a temperature boundary over the southern Plains. Some scattered thunderstorms will erupt across the region ahead of the system into Monday night.
This image, captured at 9 a.m. CDT Monday, April 20, 2020, shows clouds associated with a disturbance over the Four Corners region of the United States. (NOAA / GOES-East)
The impact of the rain into Tuesday night will be two-fold, bringing both dangers and benefits to the parched region.
A general 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch of rain is forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 3 inches from northeastern New Mexico, eastward to the Interstate 40 corridor of Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City, and perhaps as far south as the Red River Valley in Oklahoma and northern Texas.
"The general rainfall will be beneficial as some areas are experiencing drought conditions," Brett Anderson, AccuWeather forecaster, said. Parts of central and southern Texas are facing moderate to extreme and even exceptional drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Laredo, Texas, has only picked up 1.61 inches of rain since the start of 2020, only 43% of the normal rainfall during this time frame. A mere 1.09 inches of rain has fallen in Brownsville, Texas, adding up to only 24% of normal rainfall. Only 36% of normal rainfall has been recorded in Corpus Christi, Texas, with 2.33 inches coming down since Jan. 1.
Even though the heaviest rainfall will bypass the hardest-hit drought areas and aim for areas a bit farther north near the Texas and Oklahoma border, spotty showers and thunderstorms could still sneak southward and provide some temporary relief.
"Rainfall of 2 and 3 inches in a few hours' time can lead to isolated flash urban and small stream flooding," Anderson said, adding that soaking rain will also extend northward into parts of southeastern Colorado and southern Kansas.
As the intensity of the storms increases, the severe weather potential will grow. Some communities can experience small hail from isolated strong storms on Tuesday, but most thunderstorms will not turn severe until they progress eastward on Tuesday night.
"There will be an increasing chance of storms with golf ball-sized hail or larger, as well as storms with damaging wind gust Tuesday night," Anderson said.
The I-40 corridor, and perhaps along U.S. Route 82, is likely to be the battleground for storms with large hail. Forecasters say people who live in this zone may want to park vehicles under cover if possible to avoid the risk of hail damage during Tuesday night.
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A couple of brief, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well during Tuesday night. So even though this particular event may not match the intensity of some severe weather in prior years over the region, the potential of a nocturnal tornado even if isolated and brief poses an added risk.
As the disturbance continues to push eastward at midweek, a larger storm system will evolve. That storm will tap into warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico as it advances across the balance of the Southern states from Wednesday to Thursday with more widespread severe weather, including the potential for more than just a few isolated tornadoes.
The severe weather threat will overlap areas in central Oklahoma and perhaps north-central Texas in the path of storms Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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