Updated Mar. 29, 2020 5:04 AM
Following widespread heat and severe weather in some locations this weekend, a storm system will cruise eastward with drenching rain and thunderstorms across the southern United States before March comes to a close.
"A storm is forecast to make steady eastward progress across the South this week, but it will pull a significant amount of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
The first showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely to erupt over parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas on Monday as the storm emerges from the southern Rockies and begins to tap the Gulf moisture.
An area of drenching rain and embedded thunderstorms will then blossom over the lower Mississippi Valley during Monday night and Tuesday.
"It is possible that areas from the Interstate 10 corridor to the I-40 corridor receive enough rain on short order to cause flooding," Anderson said.
It does appear that the flooding risk in this case will be localized and generally limited to urban areas and small streams.
The hot weather this week has helped the water table drop in much of the region, although some streams and rivers are still swollen from repeated heavy rainfall this past winter.
It is possible that monthly rainfall during March may be below average in Jackson, Mississippi, for the first time since November. Jackson has received 33.27 inches of rain from Dec. 1, 2019, to March 27, 2020, and sustained significant flooding from the Pearl River during the middle of February.
Marcus Morris steadies the boat as his neighbor Chris Sharp readies the trolling motor for another trip through their Pearl River flooded neighborhood in Jackson, Miss., Sunday, Feb. 16, 2020. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Normal rainfall from December through March is about 20 inches. Rainfall during March is currently at 4.52 inches compared to an average of 5.04 inches for the entire month.
A general 1-2 inches of rain is forecast across the South with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 3 inches, provided the storm makes steady eastward progress. Should the storm slow its forward speed or stall, then two times the amount of rain may fall.
Rain is forecast to spread across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians and Piedmont areas as Tuesday progresses.
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During Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the rain is predicted to consolidate along the southern and lower mid-Atlantic coasts before heading out to sea.
Even though warm air will be much less extensive this week, when compared to this past week in the South, enough warm air and moisture will be present, when combined with the energy of the storm system to raise the risk of severe weather.
The threat for heavy, gusty thunderstorms may extend as far as central Oklahoma and Texas on Monday to Tennessee.
"The primary risk severe thunderstorms is likely from northeastern Texas through the southern half of Arkansas into northern Louisiana during Monday afternoon and night," Anderson said.
"During Tuesday, the severe thunderstorm risk is likely to advance eastward across Louisiana to Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, northern Florida and part of South Carolina," Anderson added.
A small number of the storms could produce an isolated tornado, in addition to strong straight-line wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.
This event does not appear likely to spawn a major severe weather outbreak, according to AccuWeather forecasters; however, conditions can change quickly this time of the year, they caution. A single severe thunderstorm or tornado that strikes a community head on can lead to fatalities and significant destruction of property.
2020 has yielded a near-normal number of tornadoes as of March 26, with a total of 200 preliminary reports, compared to a total of 201 typical reports to date based on Storm Prediction Center (SPC) data from 2005 to 2015. Severe storms into next week could push the dial to above-normal.
Meteorologists are stressing, however, that even thunderstorms with moderate gusty winds can be enough to cause damage and pose a problem for tents and canopies set up for triage and testing related to COVID-19.
Isolated flash flooding can also be dangerous for motorists. Experts urge motorists to never attempt to drive across a flooded roadway. The road surface may have been washed away or the water may be much deeper than it appears and could cause your vehicle to stall and/or be swept away.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Marcus Morris steadies the boat as his neighbor Chris Sharp readies the trolling motor for another trip through their Pearl River flooded neighborhood in Jackson, Miss., Sunday, Feb. 16, 2020. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
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Nearly 30 million Americans brace for severe weather outbreak, tornado threatAccuWeather predicts the US regions at the highest risk for flooding in 2020Study on new coronavirus says warmer weather may slow COVID-19 spread, cooler weather may accelerate itAccuWeather's 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is out5 ways you can be struck by lightning -- and only 1 involves a direct strike
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