WEATHER NEWS Updated Feb. 11, 2020 8:53 AM
The New Hampshire Primary is set for Tuesday, Feb. 11, and the weather could impact the voter turnout and overall election results.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said New Hampshire has had a rather warm winter season so far, with cities like Concord reaching up to 8 F above average.
"It's been a relatively warm winter, basically across much of the east," Rossio said.
However, the rising temperatures are expected to shift for the primaries on Tuesday, hovering in the 30s F.
"It's not going to be brutally cold by any means, but it'll be chilly," he said.
Democratic U.S. presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) returns to her hotel after a morning walk in North Conway, New Hampshire, on Feb.10, 2020. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
A weak storm riding along the southern New England coast will bring some precipitation into the area on Tuesday. While precipitation will be generally light, snow is certainly a possibility for much of the state.
Rossio predicts that any precipitation that occurs will be in the form of light snow in the late afternoon through the evening, and could continue into the night.
On Monday, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was seen contending with some light snow as she prepared for her final day of campaigning in New Hampshire ahead of the primary. Warren was in North Conway, New Hampshire, about a 140-mile drive north of Boston. Before she headed out to press the flesh, Warren, wearing a hat that read "Make Earth Cool Again," could be heard telling reporters, "We've got just the right amount snow."
Meanwhile, farther south in Manchester, supporters of President Donald Trump braved the cold and rain while camping outside the SNHU Arena ahead of a rally he held there on Monday evening.
Video posted by the local police department showed what appeared to be hundreds of supporters lined up, many holding umbrellas, as they waited for the rally.
Timing and location will determine how much precipitation voters encounter on Tuesday. "Early in the day, rain and snow showers will be less widespread, and mainly confined to the southwestern part of the state," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.
"If you want to ensure you wait to vote in dry conditions, the earlier you go the better," Benz added.
Throughout the day precipitation will spread north and east. The mountains, and most of central and northern New Hampshire can expect snow, while southern parts of the state may have rain mixing with snow.
In the evening when many people will be leaving work, the snow could affect road conditions.
According to research conducted by AccuWeather in 2016 that analyzed weather trends and its correlation to voting data, difficult weather conditions, including winter weather, can affect voter turnout with swing voters especially.
Research shows that women are less likely to vote when conditions are colder, and voters between the ages of 18-24 are more likely to vote when the weather is warm and sunny, which could affect Sanders' numbers, as he is the popular candidate among young voters.
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Democrats are looking for less drama in the second contest of the 2020 election season, following what was widely considered a debacle at the Iowa Caucuses.
Results of the Iowa Caucuses, which took days to be processed, finished with Pete Buttigieg receiving 13 delegates and 26.2% of the votes, compared to Bernie Sanders' 12 delegates and 26.1% of the votes. However, several news outlets, including The Associated Press, were unable to declare a clear winner because of inconsistencies in this year's process.
Democratic presidential candidates former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., shake hands on stage Friday, Feb. 7, 2020, before the start of a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by ABC News, Apple News, and WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Prior to the Iowa Caucuses, Sanders held the lead in polling with 24%, followed closely by Buttigieg at 20%, according to a study from Monmouth University.
However, according to a Boston Globe/Suffolk University Poll, Buttigieg actually trails by just one point at 23%, with the margin between him and other candidates being over 10 points.
FiveThirtyEight's live polling average chart shows Sanders holds a lead in the state polls as of late Monday, which he has held onto this chart since overtaking Biden on Jan. 16.
With young voters, Sanders has a significant lead with 42%, while Buttigieg trails with 11%. With voters over 50, the numbers are more closely tied; however, Sanders still leads with 23%, followed by Buttigieg at 21%.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks at "Our Rights, Our Courts" forum New Hampshire Technical Institute's Concord Community College , Saturday, Feb. 8, 2020, in Concord, N.H. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
"[The Iowa Caucus] won't tell you to a great extent who will win the nomination, let alone the presidency," Drake University political science professor and longtime political analyst Dennis Goldford previously told AccuWeather. "They have a better chance to tell you who will not win the nomination. In other words, if you don’t do well in Iowa in the past at least, your money dries up, it’s hard to continue."
In the 2016 election, Clinton won New Hampshire — the smallest swing state — by less than one point, according to Politico.
276,385 people in the state are registered as Democrats, compared to 288,464 that are registered as Republicans. The vast majority of voters in the state are undeclared, 415,871.
While the last presidential election was a close call, both of the states congressional districts went Democratic in the 2018 midterms and the most recent elections have given the Democrats senate seats.
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