HEALTH Updated Feb. 11, 2020 2:41 PM
Visits to health care providers for influenzalike illnesses (ILI) increased for a third straight week to 6.7 percent compared to 6 percent the previous week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
That’s not surprising for researchers at the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia who work in a research partnership with AccuWeather.
They predicted what is now a second peak of ILI activity for the 2019-20 season a month ago when ILI activity was at its first peak of 7 percent. However, it doesn’t mean the season isn’t surprising in some ways.
“It’s hard to believe we are this deep into February and we’ve got another crazy-long and intense season, with several ‘prime’ flu season weeks to go,” Dr. Bryan Lewis, a professor at the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia, told AccuWeather.
It’s the 12th straight week flu activity is above baseline normal (2.4 percent). Last year, levels of ILI in the United States were at or above baseline for 21 straight weeks.
The Biocomplexity Institute researchers forecast a week or two of plateauing ILI activity followed by a slow decline in activities. Decreases in ILI activity that have started in the central Plains will continue, although second strong peaks that exceed the originals in several regions will occur, following the example of the mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions.
A chart from the CDC shows how this season’s percentage of ILI-related visits are spiking and falling in a similar fashion to last year’s flu season. However, the percentage of ILI visits is higher.
“This uptick is stronger than I initially suspected it would be, but this ‘double peak’ is not surprising given the time of year and the dearth of Influenza A seen in most of the country during the initial peak earlier in the season,” Lewis told AccuWeather.
The CDC reports the numbers of Influenza B/Victoria and A(H1N1) viruses now are approximately equal for the season overall. Influenza B causes significant illness in those stricken; however, hospitalization and death are less frequent than with Influenza A.
An estimated 22 million people have experienced flu illnesses in the U.S. this season, with 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from the flu, according to the CDC. Indicators that track overall severity (hospitalizations and deaths) are not high at this point in the season.
Amanda Phillips comforts her 4-year-old daughter, Jade, after the girl lost her vision from complications brought on by a nearly fatal bout with influenza B. (ABC News)
All but five states in the U.S. are considered to be at a high level of ILI activity, the CDC notes; Nevada, New Hampshire, Alaska, Delaware, and Idaho are the exceptions. Just three weeks ago, 18 states were at moderate, low or minimal levels.
Flu season typically begins in October, peaks between December and February and lasts well into March although activity can last as late as May. Flu viruses are more stable in cold air and the low humidity allows the virus particles to remain in the air, according to Peter Palese, who was the lead author on a key flu study in 2007.
“AccuWeather believes the weather and the sunshine intensity are important factors in the flu season; there is no flu to speak of in the summer because the sun is strong and the weather is warm,” said company founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
No comments:
Post a Comment