Jessica Rodgers and a neighbor, Ray Arellana, carry a stroller carrying Rodgers' sister Sophia Rodgers over downed power lines in Jefferson City, Missouri, Thursday, May 23, 2019.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Munich Re insurance company recently released their 2019 damage estimates for weather-related causes. AccuWeather previously released its 2019 total U.S. damage and economic loss estimate of $142 billion for the specific, major events but has added an additional $4 billion – for a total of $146 billion – to include all damages and losses from weather events that totaled less than $1 billion individually.
AccuWeather’s estimate includes damages and losses due to California wildfires ($80 billion), hurricanes ($22 billion), tornadoes and severe local storms ($19.5 billion), flooding ($12.5 billion), winter storms ($8 billion) and other events throughout the year ($4 billion) for a total of $146 billion.
That estimate includes, among other factors, damage to homes and businesses, as well as their contents and cars, job and wage losses, farm and crop losses, infrastructure damage and auxiliary business losses. It also includes the long-term impacts unique to the particular weather events such as the lingering health effects resulting from flooding and the disease caused by standing water as well as health impacts from poor air quality from forest fires (which are expanded on below).
“Our decades of experience forecasting high-impact weather events and witnessing the damage left behind enable us to calculate damage and economic loss estimates that have proven to be the most accurate,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers.
NOAA estimated there were 14 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the U.S. that totaled $45 billion. Flooding events combined to total almost half of the estimate (three for $20 billion), with tornadoes and severe local storms (eight for $13.9 billion), hurricanes and tropical storms (two for $6.6 billion) and California and Alaska wildfires ($4.5 billion) accounting for the rest.
According to NOAA, the total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters over the last five years (2015–2019) exceeds $525 billion, with a five-year, inflation-adjusted annual cost average of $106.3 billion, both of which are NOAA records.
Munich Re, which offers reinsurance, primary insurance and insurance-related risk solutions, estimated losses of $150 billion worldwide in 2019 as a result of natural catastrophes, of which approximately $52 billion was insured. Losses from weather events impacting the U.S. included among their estimates were severe storms and flooding in May ($4.7 billion) and October ($2.6 billion) and overall losses during the 2019 hurricane season of $3 billion. Also, California wildfire losses were estimated at $1.1 billion.
However, losses covered by insurance are estimated to be roughly 25 percent to 50 percent of the true total damage and economic loss, according to insurance industry standards.
Flames from a backfire consume a hillside as firefighters battle the Maria Fire in Santa Paula, Calif., on Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
A big variation among the estimates by AccuWeather, NOAA and Munich Re, in particular, exists regarding wildfire estimates.
In addition to the factors noted above, AccuWeather’s wildfire damage and loss estimate includes economic losses because of school and highway closures, evacuations and increased insurance premiums throughout the affected areas, as well as reduced value of real estate, the costs of power outages to businesses and individuals, the destruction of wildlife, firefighting costs, flight cancellations and delays, and the current and long-term residual health effects -- including the medical costs of increased asthma, emphysema, heart attacks and possible bone mass loss -- on those impacted by dirty air.
The Insurance Journal estimated that insured losses from California wildfires were $25.4 billion through just Oct. 29. It notes, however, “Damage estimates can vary because some only contain insured losses, while others take in everything that was destroyed. After disasters, many people will pay for repairs out of their own pocket, which often leads to under counting.”
Myers agrees there’s a likelihood of a substantial under-estimation of the wildfire damages. “The insurance costs through Oct. 29 were $25.4 billion and there were additional fires subsequently damaging roughly 17,000 acres,” he said. “So the total of insured losses is probably closer to $40 billion and insured losses usually represent only about half of the total loss, suggesting our $80 billion estimate is accurate.”
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