Sunday, December 15, 2019

The Great Lakes Have Been Filled to the Brim for Months and It Could Spell Trouble This Winter

Linda LamPublished: December 11, 2019
November Mean Lake Levels
Near-record high water levels on the Great Lakes could increase the threat of coastal erosion and lakeshore flooding this winter.
The average water level for the lakes during November was within half a foot of record levels on Lake Superior as well as Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Lake Erie and Lake Ontario were just over half a foot below their record level for this time of year.
The water levels for all the lakes are expected to remain above average through at least February even though lake levels generally decreased in November and typically continue to do so into winter.
Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron may also remain close to record levels over the next couple of months, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. How high the actual water level reaches depends on weather variations.
There is an increased potential of severe coastal impacts including shoreline erosion, lakeshore flooding and coastal damages over the next few weeks and possibly throughout the winter because of the observed higher water levels, the International Lake Superior Board of Control noted. The risk will be greater during periods of strong winds and high waves.
Winter is usually an active time of year. Strong low pressure systems move through the Great Lakes region during this time. These powerful storms combined with higher water levels increase the chances for issues along the lakeshores like coastal erosion and flooding.
There doesn't have to be a strong storm moving through the area for there to be problems. Portions of Lake Ontario are under a lakeshore flood warning midweek due to the combination of high water levels and high waves as a cold front pushes through.

Why Are Water Levels So High?

The Great Lakes set several monthly records for highest levels during the May through August period and lakes Erie and Ontario set all-time records this summer.
The reason for the record-high levels this year in the Great Lakes? Excessive precipitation in the region.
Above-average precipitation has plagued the Midwest for most of this year. The dominant pattern featured a parade of storms that dumped heavy snow and rain in the central U.S. since late last winter.
Chicago, Green Bay and Muskegon, Michigan, have all experienced their wettest year-to-date on record as of Dec. 8, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Most locations in the Midwest have seen a top-10 wettest year-to-date.
All this precipitation eventually flows into rivers and lakes, including the Great Lakes. As a result, the wetter-than-average trend in the central U.S. this year has kept Great Lakes water levels high.
Precipitation rankings year-to-date through Dec. 8. 2019.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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