Updated Dec. 18, 2019 3:20 PM
Gathering clouds and showers over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Texas late this week will be a sign of a budding rainstorm forecast to drench the Deep South in the days leading up to Christmas.
The developing weather system will hit at a time when millions of travelers are venturing out for their holiday destinations.
This image, taken on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2019, shows a combination of high and low clouds over the Gulf of Mexico, while dry air is temporarily holding on over the South Central states. (NOAA / GOES-East)
From Saturday to Monday, enough rain can fall with the storm system to cause urban flooding and poor visibility, both of which are hazards for motorists. Excess water on the roads during downpours can increase emergency stopping distance and the chance of vehicles hydroplaning.
The combination of heavy rain, fog and a low cloud ceiling can slow the arrival and departure of flights at airports in the region including around Atlanta, New Orleans and Orlando.
Gusty winds will also accompany the storm after it begins to strengthen. The combination of wind and rain can make for especially miserable weather conditions for those heading out and doing some last-minute shopping.
People heading to the Florida beaches or theme resorts should be prepared for downpours from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, when the bulk of the rain is forecast.
"A general 2-4 inches of rain is forecast along the central and eastern Gulf coast and the southern Atlantic coast to as far north as the Intestate 20 corridor,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tiffany Fortier.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches can occur anywhere along and south of I-10.
The storm will come about from a disturbance at the jet stream level of the atmosphere that will slowly cross the Deep South and spawn a storm in the low levels of the atmosphere along the tail end of a cold front that dropped across Florida at midweek.
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Where the storm is forecast to form, over the northern Gulf of Mexico, the water is not warm enough to support a tropical storm.
The system is likely to gather enough warm air to raise the risk of thunderstorms, some of which could become severe over the Florida Peninsula from Saturday to Monday. The details of the nature and timing of the potential severe weather will be revealed in the coming days.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe that the bulk of the rain will stay south of Little Rock, Arkansas; Nashville; and Raleigh, North Carolina. Although storms that strengthen significantly can sometimes shift farther north, that scenario is not likely in this case.
However, there is a remote chance that just enough cold air will be manufactured by the storm to allow snow along the northern edge of the rain over parts of the southern Appalachians from Sunday night to early Monday.
There is some good news for travelers planning to hit the road in the region on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The storm is expected to move eastward and off the Atlantic coast later Monday and Monday night.
Following that storm, milder air will return rather than a blast from the Arctic like sometimes happens in the wake of a system.
Many areas east of the Rockies can expect above-average temperatures and storm-free conditions from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day and beyond.
Download the free AccuWeather app to check the forecast in your area. Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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