Tropical system threatens to renew flood threat in the Philippines

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Nov. 11, 2019 1:49 PM

A broad area of low pressure in the Philippine Sea has developed into a tropical depression. This system is known as Ramon in the Philippines.

While an area of wind shear south of the storm could slow development, the warm waters of the Philippine Sea will likely fuel this storm with gradual strengthening possible.

Regardless of development, the tropical feature can bring periods of heavy rainfall to parts of the Philippines during the latter half of the week.

"Due to the recent heavy rain, especially in eastern Luzon, this additional rainfall can lead to prolonged river flooding along with new flash flooding and mudslides," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. "While flooding rainfall appears to be the main threat, if this system does form into a tropical storm, there can be isolated wind damage near its center."

Rainfall totals can reach 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches), particularly across eastern areas of the Visayas, Bikol, Calabarzon and Luzon.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches) is possible along the north- and east-facing slopes in these areas. There is the potential that this storm will linger near the northern Philippines through the weekend, prolonging the risk of flooding across the region.

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This is not the only tropical feature brewing in the West Pacific Ocean basin. An area of low pressure east of the Mariana Islands strengthened into Tropical Storm Fengshen on Tuesday.

The storm is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days as it continues to track to the west-northwest in an area of low wind shear with the potential to bring flooding rainfall and damaging winds to the northernmost northern Mariana Islands late this week and into the weekend.

Any significant impacts are expected to remain well to the north of Guam and Saipan.

Through the weekend, the storm looks to get picked up by a non-tropical storm system moving across the Pacific Ocean, turning the feature on an easterly track. If the storm makes this turn, it is unlikely to impact eastern Asia.