Published Nov. 7, 2019 7:33 AM
While Maha is a weakening tropical depression nearing the coast of Gujarat, India, Cyclonic Storm Bulbul is strengthening across the Bay of Bengal and will threaten flooding across northeast India and southern Bangladesh in the coming days.
Maha became an extremely severe cyclonic storm on Monday in the Arabian Sea, equivalent to a Category 3 major hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm has since weakened significantly and is a deep depression near the coast of Gujarat.
Due to the loss of wind intensity, any winds across coastal Gujarat are not expected to cause damage. However, heavy downpours can still threaten southern and western Gujarat through Friday.
Isolated downpours can produce 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) of rain within a short period of time. This can cause a rapid reduction in visibility and travel delays. Overall impacts, however, from Maha are expected to remain minor.
A more significant threat is brewing across the northern Bay of Bengal as Bulbul intensifies.
Tropical Cyclone Bulbul formed from what was once Tropical Storm Matmo that crossed the western Pacific Ocean and made landfall in Vietnam late in October. Bulbul will near northeast India and southern Bangladesh, threatening the region with damaging wind and flooding rain into the weekend.
According to Colorado State University Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, Bulbul "is the first storm to be named in the western North Pacific and then travel into the North Indian Ocean and become a named storm again since Wilma in 2013."
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said that he expects the flood threat to increase significantly across these areas on Friday night and last into Sunday.
"The outer bands of rain and thunder will spread onshore across northern Odisha, West Bengal and southern Bangladesh on Friday," said Houk
If the storm continues to track to the northeast and weakens while moving over land, the flood threat on Sunday will be largely confined to southern Bangladesh. Coastal portions of West Bengal and northern Odisha would dry out in this scenario.
However, there is a chance that Bulbul will slow or stall near the coast this weekend. If that occurs, Houk warns that "the flooding threat will continue along the coast from West Bengal to northern Odisha through Sunday."
Regardless of the exact speed of the storm, heavy rain is expected within a narrow corridor of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) along the coast from northern Odisha to southern West Bengal and into Bangladesh. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 450 mm (18 inches) is possible.
Totals will trail off significantly away from the coast with Kolkata expected to receive 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain. This will be enough to cause travel disruptions over the weekend, though should not lead to significant flooding.
Despite causing travel disruptions, rain in Kolkata could briefly improve air quality in the city for several days into early next week.
How close the center of the cyclone gets to the coast will dictate the level of wind damage.
"Winds along the coast could be strong enough to cause some damage to weaker structures and down some trees and knock out power," Houk said. "However, the damaging wind threat away from the immediate coast looks small."
Bulbul should rapidly lose intensity early next week with lingering downpours gradually dissipating.
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