Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Halloween storm to drench areas from Deep South to northeastern US

Updated Oct. 29, 2019 3:15 PM




The warm side of a storm targeting the Heartland with snow around Halloween will unleash a swath of drenching rain and travel disruptions from the upper Gulf Coast to northern New England.
The strengthening circulation from the storm will cause winds to increase over much of the eastern half of the nation and draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
Prior to a swath of heavy rain, heavy, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms may erupt from part of the upper Gulf coast to portions of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians during Wednesday night.
A general swath of 1- to 3-inch-rainfall with pockets of 3-5 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches can occur from southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi to the northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will follow.
The anticipated rainfall, when combined with recent storms, is likely to practically eliminate drought from the lower Mississippi Valley to northern New England.
However, since much of this rain will fall during a 6- to 12-hour period, there is also the likelihood of street flooding and the potential for small stream flooding. Where leaves have already fallen or will come down with the increasing winds from this storm, not only will street flooding be significant, but roads and sidewalks can be especially slick.
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Rounds of rain will bring a flood risk through midweek, with some of the heaviest rain falling around the Atlanta area.
Kids heading out Thursday evening for the Halloween masquerade could be soaked to the bone from near the Alabama and Georgia border to eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, much of upstate New York and northern New England.
Thunder and lightning can accompany the windswept rain in some locations, which will add to the spooky setting.
An area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast will tend to suppress rain from the Florida Peninsula to the Delmarva Peninsula. It is possible that heavy rain in the corridor from Atlanta to Charlotte, North Carolina; Richmond, Virginia; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City only lasts a couple of hours.
In these areas, the problematic downpours will be limited to the arrival of a cold front.
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Depending on the forward speed of that front, it may not rain much at all in the swath from Atlanta to Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, until late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening.
While occasional rain can fall during the day Thursday to Thursday evening from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, the burst of heavy rain may hold off until late Thursday night or early Friday morning, or well after trick-or-treat time.
However, the Friday morning commute could be slow and saturated from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine.
Those with Thursday flights around the Great Lakes and coastal Northeast may experience delays and/or cancellations, due not only to rain but also strong winds.
Delays and cancellations are likely on Friday morning in the Northeast from the ripple-effect of the recent rain and ongoing strong winds.
While the core of the cold air in the wake of the storm will set up over the Central states, still the coldest air of the season so far is forecast to spill over the Appalachians and onto the Eastern Seaboard this weekend.
Freezes will be widespread over the Appalachians on west with the risk of frosts reaching close in to the mid-Atlantic and coastal New England major cities.
Sunday morning is forecast to be dry and crisp for the New York Marathon, but wind might be an issue for some runners.
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