US Corn Belt worries: ‘Is most of the crop going to make it?’

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Sep. 24, 2019 3:56 PM

The low numbers jump off the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress report looking like test scores a student would hide from his parents: 53, 58, 59, 59.

For the corn industry, though, they are important, must-see figures. They’re the numbers for the percentage of corn that has dented in four states still struggling with the impact of rain and flooding during the 2019 season.

The states – Michigan (53%), North Dakota (58%), North Carolina (59%), and Wisconsin (59%) – are struggling as the growing season winds down. They’re also far off the average pace for this time of year.

For comparison, the five-year average for each of those states in terms of corn dented by this date is Michigan (82%), North Dakota (91%), North Carolina (89%) and Wisconsin (84%). Overall, corn dented for the USDA’s 18 key corn-producing states this year is 79%, well below the five-year average of 94%. 

RELATED:

How extreme weather led to one of the 20th century’s most iconic photosBad signs and perhaps a threat on the horizon for farmersAccuWeather’s latest analysis predicts a poor 2019 yield for corn and soybeans

“Across the northern tier of the Corn Belt, they just haven’t had the growing units this year,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “So that brings the question: Is most of the crop going to make it to the finish line there? And how much of it?

"While most of it will," said Nicholls, "a small percentage in the far northwest part of the Corn Belt may not."

And the hits just keep on coming for the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt. Several rounds of rain followed by cooler air over the next 10 to 14 days will cause more growing and harvesting issues for farmers. 

“The normal weekly rainfall for the northwestern corner of the Midwest at this time of year is 0.6 to 0.8 of an inch, but there’s going to be a narrow zone from Omaha up toward Michigan that could get 3-6 inches of rain in the next week,” Nicholls said. “It’s not going to damage the crops necessarily, but it’ll just slow everything up and there definitely will be harvest delays.”

After the rain will come cooler air in the northwestern corner of the Sun Belt, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. (The southeastern parts of the Sun Belt will experience more favorable conditions.)

“It’s not going to be cold enough for a widespread killing frost in most northwest areas, but it will be cool enough that the mean temperature will be in the 40s and low 50s,” Nicholls said. “There isn’t much of any growth if you get below 50. And it’s going to be just cool enough that there won’t be much growth anymore in that area starting this weekend and lasting into October.” 

Download the free AccuWeather app to see the forecast for your location. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.