Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Tropical Storm Lorena forms, will target Mexico with torrential rainfall into this weekend

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist




Satellite imagery, captured on Sept. 17, shows Hurricane Humberto churning through the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is expected to skirt past Bermuda in the coming days.
A tropical storm that developed in the East Pacific Ocean on Tuesday will track near the western coastline of Mexico in the coming days.
Tropical Storm Lorena is currently less than 200 miles south of the southern coast of Mexico and is forecast to track northwestward in the coming days.
As of 4 p.m. CDT, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving at a speed of 15 mph to the northwest. The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm watch from the city of Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lorena south of Mexico on Tuesday morning, local time. (NOAA/GOES-East satellite image)
Locations near the coast in the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco will endure the bouts of heaviest rainfall in the coming days.
Multiple days of heavy rainfall will raise the risk of flooding and mudslides in these communities and may also result in travel disruptions.
Total rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be common with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches).
A continued northwest track will bring Lorena near or into the coast of Mexico between Thursday and Friday.
If landfall occurs, it would likely happen in either the state of Colima or Jalisco. It's possible that Lorena could bring the risk of locally damaging winds with gusts in excess of 100 km/h mph (62 mph).
RELATED:
In the longer range, Lorena will continue toward the north and may bring impacts to Baja California as early as Saturday night or Sunday.
If Lorena tracks into or close to Baja California, locations from Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas may endure a period of heavy rainfall and strong winds.
The region would be at risk for localized flooding, mudslides and power outages.
In this scenario, moisture from Lorena could cause additional flooding across northern Mexico as moisture streams toward the United States by early next week.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lorena located south of Mexico on Tuesday.
If Lorena turns more to the northwest, the storm could remain far enough out to sea that Baja California Sur escapes with just some enhanced showers and thunderstorms.
Lorena would then weaken as it moves into cooler waters west of Baja California next week with no additional impacts to land.
Just hours after Lorena developed, Tropical Storm Mario took shape. Mario is located west of Lorena and is not expected to have any direct impact to land.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

  One of two men missing at sea for nearly two weeks was found alive on Thursday by a Canadian fishing boat in a life raft in Canadian water...