Updated Sep. 30, 2019 11:35 PM
While Hurricane Lorenzo has not been a threat to land in the week since it developed off the coast of Africa, that is expected to change in the coming days. Residents of the Azores, as well as across the United Kingdom and Ireland, are on alert for the arrival of the storm later this week.
Lorenzo became a Category 5 major hurricane Saturday night, prior to weakening some on Sunday and Monday. In doing so, Lorenzo became the strongest hurricane to be located far north and east in the Atlantic.
Despite weakening, Lorenzo will batter the Azores from late Tuesday into Wednesday with hurricane-force winds and torrential rainfall. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings were issued for the islands on Monday.
As of Monday evening, Lorenzo was a Category 2 storm, located about 840 miles west-southwest of the Azores.
After departing the Azores, Lorenzo will approach western Europe with impacts ranging from a glancing blow to a direct hit by Thursday.
The key factors that will determine Lorenzo's track are a large non-tropical storm system located near Greenland and an area of high pressure centered over Spain.
The area of high pressure will act as a shield preventing Lorenzo from reaching the Iberian Peninsula and forcing the storm northward toward the British Isles.
Satellite animation of Lorenzo churning across the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, Sept. 30. (NOAA/STAR GOES-East)
At the same time, the storm near Greenland will attempt to pull Lorenzo north and westward.
As Lorenzo tracks to the west of the British Isles it will attempt to find a weakness in the high pressure shielding the region. This would allow it to veer eastward with a possible direct hit on the islands.
In this scenario, Lorenzo could track directly into Ireland, Northern Ireland or Scotland as a powerful post-tropical storm with hurricane force wind gusts.
Powerful winds may then result in widespread tree damage, power cuts, significant travel disruptions and some damage to homes and businesses from Thursday night into Friday.
Leaves that are still on trees may potentially increase the risk for tree damage and power cuts and also elevate the risk for flooding due to clogged drains as the strong winds cause a significant leaf fall.
The other scenario involves the storm near Greenland winning out and pulling Lorenzo northward, sparing the British Isles any significant impacts.
A band of rain may cross the region from late Thursday into Friday in this scenario with no widespread flooding or damaging winds expected.
Lorenzo would then weaken considerably or even be absorbed into the larger storm before bringing some gusty winds and rainfall to the region this weekend.
While the storm has remained away from land, it has still remained a threat, particularly to shipping interests. Late last week a tug boat went missing with 14 people aboard about 1,200 nautical miles off the island of Martinique, according to Radio Free Europe.
It was later confirmed by French shipping company, Bourbon, that the tug boat had sunk after taking on water in the rear of the vessel. At the time, it was about 60 nautical miles from the eye of the then-Category 4 Lorenzo.
At least two crew members, both from the Ukraine, have been rescued but the rest remain missing. Most of the crew members are Ukrainian.
On Monday, Bourbon confirmed that the body of one of the missing was found and the sailor's family was being notified.
Rescue operations remain underway, the company said.
According to Radio Free Europe, the French Navy, at least five nearby commercial vessels and the U.S. National Hurricane Center have assisted in the search.
No comments:
Post a Comment