Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Monsoon downpours bring flood risk from Maharashtra to Andhra Pradesh this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist




An uptick in monsoon downpours will renew the risk of flooding across a large swath of India this week.
A pair of weak monsoon lows will be the driving force for the increased downpours.
Locations from Maharashtra eastward into Telangana and much of Andhra Pradesh will get daily downpours and be at greatest risk for flooding and travel disruptions.
One monsoon low drifting westward across Maharashtra will bring downpours to Nagpur, Mumbai, Nashik and Pune.
Downpours can bring a quick 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall resulting in flash flooding and travel disruptions. This will also elevate the risk of mudslides in typically prone areas.
Hardest-hit locations may receive an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 300 mm (12 inches) through Saturday.
The monsoon low may then stall near the coast of Maharashtra continuing downpours through this weekend or move offshore bringing an end to the risk for widespread heavy rainfall.
If the low moves offshore, it could develop into a tropical cyclone, lashing southern Gujarat before tracking westward into the open Arabian Sea next week.
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A second monsoon low spinning near the coast of Andhra Pradesh this week will bring downpours to much of the state as well as neighboring parts of Telangana.
This low will meander into this weekend allowing downpours to shift around from day to day bringing the risk for flash flooding and travel disruptions.
Coastal locations from Nellore to Visakhapatnam will be at risk for these daily downpours.
Heavy rainfall will also spread inland at times affecting locations such as Hyderabad.
These downpours may even extend farther south into northeastern Tamil Nadu, bringing beneficial rainfall to Chennai which is enduring a significant drought and water shortages.
Parts of far northern India, Nepal and northeastern India will also be at risk for heavy rainfall into the middle of the week.
Lucknow, Patna and Kathmandu may all get periodic downpours elevating the risk for flooding and causing travel delays.
Rainfall totals of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) are likely with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 250 mm (10 inches).
Drier weather will overtake much of northern India during the second half of the week.

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