Updated Sep. 26, 2019 10:26 AM
A large area of showers and thunderstorms across Central America will expand to the north and west and may result in a new tropical threat near the coast of Mexico by this weekend.
The heaviest rainfall is expected near and just inland from Mexico's western coastline and will raise the threat of flash flooding and mudslides in the coming days.
Locations such as Tapachula, Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarto will be in the zone of highest risk .
Despite tropical development not being expected until at least the weekend, daily downpours will be possible across much of southeastern Mexico and neighboring parts of Central America each of the next several days.
An area of low pressure will attempt to develop off the southern coast of Mexico near Acapulco on Friday, further enhancing downpours for locations from Guerrero state through southern Oaxaca and Chiapas.
A track to the northwest will keep this budding tropical threat off the coast of Mexico this weekend and give it more time to wrap up into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm.
As the tropical threat moves northwestward, downpours will expand with it encompassing areas as far north of Jalisco, Nayarit and southern Sinaloa by Sunday and Monday.
Total rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be possible in areas near the coast from Nayarit southward to Chiapas through Monday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches).
While the rain will not be constant in any given location, downpours can total 50 mm (2 inches) within a few hours resulting in flash flooding and significant travel disruptions.
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Rough seas, dangerous surf and rip currents will develop along Mexico's western coastline and persist into next week.
Daily showers and thunderstorms will also spread farther inland across the interior of central and southern Mexico into early next week.
Locations such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, Durango and Oaxaca will be at risk for these showers and thunderstorms that can produce localized flooding.
Next week, this tropical threat will have a chance to strengthen further as it continues toward the northwest and approaches Baja California Sur.
A direct hit on the region could result in significant flooding along with damaging winds; however, if the storm tracks farther to the west or remains weak due to interaction with land, Baja California and the rest of northern Mexico would be spared any significant impacts.
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