Updated Sep. 27, 2019 11:03 AM
A new tropical threat took shape in the West Pacific on Thursday and will threaten the Ryukyu Islands by as early as Monday.
The newly formed tropical depression brought downpours to Guam on Thursday and will track west to northwest across the Philippine Sea from Friday into the weekend.
During this time, it will move over an area of water favorable for development and significant strengthening.
This new tropical threat is forecast to become a tropical storm by Friday and will be given the name Mitag when it reaches tropical storm strength.
Further strengthening is expected as the storm crosses the Philippine Sea and it could become a typhoon as early as Saturday night, local time.
A turn toward the northwest is expected over the weekend, taking the storm north and east of the Philippines and toward Japan's Ryukyu Islands.
Satellite animation of the tropical depression strengthening as it tracks east of the Philippines on Friday night, local time.
A continued north to northwest track early next week would put the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan at risk by Monday as the storm continues to strengthen.
The typhoon is forecast to be equal in strength to a Category 3 major hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific by Monday when it approaches the southern Ryukyu Islands.
All of the Ryukyu Islands should prepare now for impacts from a powerful typhoon early next week.
This satellite image shows the developing tropical depression near Guam on Thursday afternoon, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Himawari-8 satellite image)
Currently the most severe impacts are expected in Yaeyama and Miyakojima as the center of the storm passes near or over the islands.
Damaging winds, power outages and flash flooding are all expected along with dangerous seas and surf from late Monday into Tuesday.
Taiwan may be affected by the storm's outer bands to the west of it's center while Okinawa will be at risk for similar affects on the eastern side of the storm.
Bands of gusty rain may result in localized flooding and power cuts while dangerous seas will build across the region.
In the longer range, a track to the north and eventually the northeast is expected.
This will take the powerful typhoon toward South Korea and the remainder of Japan with impacts expected from Tuesday night into Thursday.
The exact track and intensity of the storm will determine the severity of the impacts, but at this time, a track near or just west of Kyushu is expected with the storm possibility tracking between South Korea and Japan late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Heavy rainfall will elevate the risk for flooding across Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu. There will also be the risk for mudslides and damaging winds.
South Korea will also be at risk for flash flooding and damaging winds with the greatest impacts expected in southern and eastern parts of the country.
By Thursday, the storm will weaken as it crosses the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and approaches northern Honshu and Hokkaido as a tropical storm.
These areas will be at risk for flooding and locally damaging winds from late Thursday into Friday.
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