Monday, September 9, 2019

Forecasters keeping watchful eye on multiple tropical disturbances roaming across Atlantic

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist




With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sept. 11, there are currently a few tropical disturbances that are being monitored over the basin which could approach the Caribbean and North America over the next couple of weeks.
While conditions are relatively quiet over the Atlantic basin at the start of this week, it could be a different story late this week or next week.
Hurricane season peak
During the middle of the tropical season, from late August through the middle of October, most tropical storms are born from tropical disturbances, called tropical waves, that move westward from Africa.
This is also known as the Cabo Verde season, which borrows its name from the Cabo Verde Islands, located just off the west coast of Africa where many of these tropical waves form.
The Cabo Verde season has been responsible for most of the monster hurricanes over the years, including the most recent Category 5 Hurricane Dorian.
tropics
However, most of these tropical waves fail to develop due to wind shear, dry air and other inhibiting factors.
There are three tropical waves of note for this week which bear close monitoring.
Tropical disturbance north of Puerto Rico is poorly organized
The first tropical wave was poorly organized and centered north of Puerto Rico on Monday morning. As it progresses, forecasters expect it to reach parts of the Bahamas that were just ravaged by Dorian.
Bahama 3 pm
"We expect this disturbance to move west-northwest and move across the Bahamas during Wednesday and Thursday and then across the Florida Peninsula during Friday and Saturday," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
While this feature is likely to cause an uptick in showers and thunderstorms and inhibit recovery efforts in the northern Bahamas, it may also bring some temporary relief from the heat.
"We feel that there is a chance of development over several days with this disturbance, but that chance is low at this time," Kottlowski said.
RELATED:
Rapid strengthening of this feature is not anticipated, should low-end development occur.
Steering winds may allow that disturbance to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
94L may run into increasing wind shear later this week
Farther to the east over the Atlantic is another tropical wave, currently dubbed Invest 94L.
TD Central Atlantic
"This area of interest, located about 1,200 miles east of Barbados in the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles, will drift westward this week," Kottlowski said.
"Nine-four L has also has a low chance of development since it will probably encounter increasing wind shear this week," Kottlowski added.
Feature near Africa coast may be of concern
There is a third tropical wave that is raising a few eyebrows. That feature is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms forecast to push off the coast of Africa early this week.
Africa disturbance 3 pm
This feature, like most tropical waves, will drift westward across the Atlantic this week and this weekend.
There is the potential for this feature to develop as it approaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend and crosses the northeastern Caribbean early next week.
A lot may happen with a feature so far out in time due to fluctuation in wind shear and steering winds.
This is a "heads-up" on potential tropical trouble for next week in the Caribbean, Bahamas and coastal areas in the eastern United States.
Gabrielle to pass over UK, Ireland
Finally, there is Gabrielle over the central Atlantic, which is not a threat to North America.
Gabby 2 pm
"While Gabrielle will transition to a tropical rainstorm this week, it is likely to bring rain and locally gusty winds to Ireland and the United Kingdom on Thursday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Eric Leister.
AccuWeather's team of meteorologists are constantly monitoring the tropics for any sign of trouble that can be a threat in the short term and the long term to assist in preparing for tropical storms and hurricanes.
podcast
Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert of tropical and severe weather advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

  One of two men missing at sea for nearly two weeks was found alive on Thursday by a Canadian fishing boat in a life raft in Canadian water...