Which 3 US cities should prepare for an early chill this fall?

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

Minnesota and Arizona have very little in common, except perhaps the extremes of one of their seasons. Which would you prefer: a Minnesota winter or an Arizona summer? Is there a third choice?

This fall, however, cities in the two states share the likelihood of an early chill, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

In Arizona, Flagstaff and Tucson are forecast to have temperatures 1.5 to 2 degrees below normal this fall, while Minneapolis, Minnesota, is forecast to have a 2- to 3-week stretch during which temperatures could average 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

Last year, temperatures in Flagstaff were normal and Tucson was 0.5 of a degree above normal, while Minneapolis was about 2 degrees below normal. 

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It is worth noting that the averages and stats referenced are from meteorological fall (Sept. 1-Nov. 30) as opposed to Sept. 23 – Dec. 21.

After warmth lingers into September across the central and northern Plains and the Midwest, a surge of cold air will arrive in late September or October, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Cold snaps, with the possibility for an early frost and freeze, are a concern into the middle of the season.

“We are forecasting some September and October rain during the harvest period, along with sharp cooldowns following,” said AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.

“An early frost area to watch is probably Kansas, Nebraska and northwestern Missouri,” he added. “Farther north, we’re talking a transition that could go from rather mild weather to some snow lying on the ground by mid-season.”

Frost would be more of a problem than normal this year because the start of the planting season was delayed for much of the Corn Belt due to persistent rain and flooding.

“With a significant percentage of corn and soybeans not likely to be safe from a frost since they’re still growing, if you get a frost when the crop is not mature, then you will damage some of the commodity and could get some losses,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

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