Tropical Storm Lekima to strengthen, threaten Taiwan to Japan later this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A newly formed tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly this week and pose a serious threat to lives and property across eastern Asia.

Lekima organized into a tropical storm on Sunday after becoming a tropical depression in the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon on Saturday.

A general north to northwest track over the next several days will keep Lekima over the open waters of Phillipine Sea, limiting impacts to land but allowing the cyclone to gain size and strength.

It has been more than five months since the last typhoon roamed the western Pacific Ocean; however, that streak is expected to end in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Francisco may briefly become a hurricane on Monday; however, Lekima is expected to become a typhoon by Tuesday as the storm slowly tracks toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Additional strengthening is forecast from Wednesday into Friday allowing Lekima to become a large and powerful typhoon with winds equal to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans.

There is a chance that Lekima could go through a period of rapid intensification during the middle of the week, which could allow the storm to become even stronger.

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lekima on Sunday, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Satellite Image)

Rough seas will be churned up from northern Luzon to Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands much of this week with wind and rain from Lekima reaching the southern Ryukyu Islands by Thursday, with worsening conditions expected on Friday.

In the longer range there are two scenarios for Lekima's track. The first would take the cyclone over the southern Ryukyu Islands with a slight turn toward China before continuing northward with potential impacts across South Korea and Japan this weekend.

The areas at risk for significant impacts from Lekima will endure a period of heavy rain and strong winds from Tropical Storm Francisco earlier in the week, heightening the risk for further flooding and damage from Lekima.

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A second scenario would take the cyclone sharply westward later this week impacting the southern Ryukyu Islands before tracking near or over Taiwan and into eastern China putting a large area at risk for flooding, mudslides and damaging winds.

In this scenario, the storm may eventually turn northward and bring impacts to South Korea and Japan next week.