Tropical Storm Bailu to unleash strong winds, flooding downpours on Taiwan, China later this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

On the heels of four tropical cyclones that made landfall in eastern Asia thus far in August, a new tropical threat has developed in the Western Pacific Ocean.

A tropical depression took shape over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday and strengthened to Tropical Storm Bailu at midweek. The storm is known as Ineng in the Philippines.

Bailu is forecast to track toward the northwest in the coming days, keeping the storm over the open waters of the Philippine Sea and allowing it to strengthen.

As the storm strengthens, seas will turn increasingly rough and dangerous for shipping interests from the northern Philippines to Taiwan.

Satellite image showing newly formed Tropical Storm Bailu east of the Philippines on Wednesday afternoon, local time. (RAMMB)

A northwest track in the coming days will take the strengthening tropical cyclone toward Taiwan and eastern China.

Bailu is expected to become a strong tropical storm and may even produce winds equal to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching Taiwan. There is a small chance that Bailu could briefly reach typhoon strength during this time.

The track of Bailu will put Taiwan at risk for a direct hit by as early as Saturday afternoon with strong winds and downpours arriving on Friday night or Saturday morning.

A land-falling tropical storm in Taiwan would bring impacts ranging from heavy rainfall to damaging winds and mudslides. Rough seas and surf would also be a concern for eastern-facing coastal locations.

A continued track toward the northwest would then put locations across eastern China at risk for similar impacts before the end of the weekend.

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If the storm were to make landfall in Taiwan it would be in a weaker state when it reaches China; however, if the storm passes just north or south of the island, China could then be at risk for landfall from a powerful typhoon.

If a track just north of Taiwan occurs, locations that were affected by Typhoon Lekima earlier this month could endure another round of flooding and damaging winds.

Areas from eastern Guangdong to southern Zhejiang and Jiangxi are at risk for impacts from Bailu depending on the exact track of the storm.

Bailu is forecast to weaken over eastern China; however, some of its moisture will likely be pulled northeastward next week resulting in several days of downpours across Japan.

The West Pacific may remain active through the end of August with multiple areas being monitored for potential tropical development next week.

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