Tropical disturbance southeast of Hawaii bears watching during mid-August

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A tropical disturbance over the eastern Pacific has a 70% chance of development into this weekend and may travel close enough to Hawaii to have some impact next week.

There are no immediate tropical threats to the Hawaiian Islands through this weekend.

The closest disturbance is located southwest of the islands, over the Central Pacific. This feature is not forecast to make a close enough approach to be of concern, even if it were to organize and strengthen.

Tropical Rainstorm Henriette, located 360 miles west-southwest of the tip of Baja California, Mexico, on Tuesday, is expected to diminish as it drifts westward over cool waters this week.

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However, there is another area that bears watching, currently over the eastern Pacific. This feature was located near 126 west longitude, or 1,150 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California as of Tuesday.

"As this system drifts toward the west and northwest over the next several days, there is a chance it organizes," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

"However, the window for development and strengthening may close as the system begins to travel closer to the Big Island due to wind shear later this weekend to early next week," Douty said.

Because of the relatively short time span for development, the odds are against the system from becoming a major (Category 3) hurricane.

If the system does develop into a tropical storm, it would take the name of Ivo. 

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There is a chance the system organizes enough to maintain a batch of tropical moisture with an uptick in showers and perhaps building surf during the Tuesday to Wednesday period of next week.

The weaker the system is, the more likely it is to drift westward, rather than northwestward.

However, if the system fails to develop at all, a more routine northeast trade wind pattern will continue with the usual northeast-facing shoreline and mountainside slope shower activity.

AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor this feature and others in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins for development.

The Central Pacific hurricane season continues through Nov. 30.

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