Monsoon low to bring daily flood risk to northern India this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A potent monsoon low will unload daily downpours as it tracks across northern India this week.

Currently situated over the northern Bay of Bengal, the monsoon low will track westward this week bringing a swath of heavy rainfall from Odisha and northeast Andhra Pradesh to Gujarat and southern Rajasthan.

Total rainfall in any given location will average 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax® of 300 mm (12 inches) through Sunday.

The low will move onshore Tuesday spreading downpours throughout Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh. A few downpours will also spread into Chhattisgarh.

Downpours can lead to flash flooding and travel disruptions. Thunderstorms can also produce frequent lightning.

Heavy rainfall will shift farther westward on Wednesday with the highest risk for flooding from western Odisha to eastern Maharashtra and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

By Thursday, downpours will be centered over Madhya Pradesh, western Chhattisgarh and northern Maharashtra. From Friday into Saturday the greatest risk for flooding will shift farther westward affecting western Madhya Pradesh to southern Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Downpours may reach all the way to southern Pakistan, including Karachi, by the end of the weekend.

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Flash flooding will also be a concern as monsoon downpours continue along India's west coast this week.

Locations from northern Karnataka through Maharashtra have seen above-normal rainfall so far this year and that trend will continue through at least Sunday.

Commuters navigate their way through a flooded street in Mumbai, India, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2019. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)

Downpours are also forecast to return to southern Karnataka and Kerala as the week progresses.

Largely dry weather will prevail for another week across India's southeast, worsening drought and water supplies issues.

No relief is expected in Chennai where trains and a convoy of nearly 10,000 tanker trucks are used to provide roughly 500 million liters (132 million gallons) of drinking water to the city each day.

Little or no rainfall is expected this week in Chennai with daily high temperatures of 35-38 C (95-100 F).