Should Hurricane Dorian strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane and come ashore on Florida's Atlantic coast, it will be the strongest hurricane to hit the state's eastern coast in nearly 30 years.
Since the late 1800s, only eight Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall on Florida's east coast. With Hurricane Dorian forecast to become a Category 4 as it makes its approach, it may become the ninth. The last hurricane of this magnitude to hit Florida was Hurricane Andrew, which hit 27 years prior in 1992.
As of Thursday night, Hurricane Dorian was trekking through the Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. AccuWeather meteorologist predict that it will become a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall along the coast of the southeastern United States. Dorian is also expected to be a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact® Scale.
"The future track it's going to take is somewhat similar to Andrew, but keep in mind that a hurricane is just like anything else," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. "They will do different things. No two hurricanes are alike."
In 1992, Hurricane Andrew slammed the eastern coast of Florida as a Category 5 hurricane. The image above shows its track throughout its lifespan.
Hurricane Andrew had strengthened from just reaching hurricane strength to a Category 4 storm from Aug. 22 to Aug. 23 in 1992 as it closed the gap from between Bermuda and Puerto Rico to the Bahamas. After weakening a bit over the islands, it gathered strength once more before blasting across Florida. Hurricane Andrew grew into a Category 5 hurricane in no more than 36 hours, according to NOAA.
According to Kottlowski, there is a good chance that Hurricane Dorian will undergo an eye wall replacement cycle. This process usually happens when storms reach the status of a major hurricane, or Category 3 or higher.
This Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019 image provided by NASA shows a view of Hurricane Dorian from the International Space Station as it churned over the Atlantic Ocean north of Puerto Rico. Leaving mercifully little damage in its wake in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hurricane Dorian swirled toward the U.S., with forecasters warning it will draw energy from the warm, open waters as it closes in. (NASA via AP)
"There will be a second eye wall that will develop almost concentric around the smaller one," Kottlowski said. "If a secondary eye wall forms, the inner eye wall tends to fall apart because the bigger one, or the one that's a little bit wider, will overtake it."
As a result, the surface pressure rises, according to Kottlowski, and can cause the hurricane to lose strength and possibly go down a category or two. Kottlowski warns that while it may go down as a category, "everything else does not stop."
This water tower, shown Aug. 25, 1992, a landmark at Florida City, Fla., still stands over the ruins of the Florida coastal community that was hit by the force of Hurricane Andrew. The storm damage to the South Florida area was estimated at $15 billion, leaving about 50,000 homeless. (AP Photo/Ray Fairall)
"When a storm goes down a notch like a category, it doesn't mean much as far as the impacts are still there," Kottlowski said.
Those impacts can include flooding rainfall, tornadoes and storm surge. Hurricane Dorian could produce up to 10 feet of storm surge, according to Kottlowski, compared to the 17 feet of storm surge that Hurricane Andrew produced.
Once the eye wall replacement cycle is complete, the hurricane could begin to grow stronger once again.
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Seven Category 4-5 hurricanes that hit the eastern coast of Florida precede Hurricane Andrew over a course of nearly 150 years.
"Since the late 1800s, I think we've only seen a total of eight Category 4 or Category 5 hurricanes hit the east coast of Florida, so it doesn't happen very often," Kottlowski said. "One of the reasons why it doesn't happen very often is because most hurricanes, when they approach Florida, tend to re-curve out to sea parallel to the coast."
When a hurricane does hit Florida from the east, however, it travels over warm water from the Gulf Stream that provides fuel for the storm right before landfall.
Hurricane King, the 1949 Florida Hurricane and the 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane had previously been listed as Category 3 hurricanes, only to be upgraded after a NOAA re-analysis in 2004.
The first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall on the eastern Florida coast was the Great Miami Hurricane in 1926, which "produced the highest sustained winds ever recorded in the United states at the time," according to NOAA, reaching up to 150 mph at landfall.
The Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 was the fourth strongest hurricane of record to hit the United States, according to NOAA. Seven years later, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 became the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the United States with a pressure of 26.35 inches measured at Long Key, Florida.
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