AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by Dorian will be $1 billion, based on an analysis incorporating independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm based on a variety of sources.
The estimate includes damage to homes and businesses, their contents and cars, as well as job and wage losses, infrastructure damage, costs to the travel and tourism industry, and auxiliary business losses.
Dorian will be a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes due to rainfall of 4 to 8 inches that can lead to localized flooding, storm surge in southwestern Puerto Rico and strong winds near the center. The National Hurricane Center has issued a number of watches and warnings; both Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic were under a hurricane watch as of Tuesday.
“If it doesn’t become a hurricane before hitting Florida – and doesn’t then strengthen after moving past Florida so it has a second landfall as a hurricane – then total damage likely will be $1 billion,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “If it hits Puerto Rico as a hurricane, as well as Florida as a hurricane, then damage could reach between $3 and $5 billion in total economic impact.”
Dorian is expected to pass close to or between western Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola from later Wednesday into Thursday. Residents of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should prepare as if a hurricane is approaching and begin taking the appropriate precautions.
After passing Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and weakening considerably, Dorian is expected to continue to the northwest, crossing the Bahamas and bringing impacts to Florida over the Labor Day weekend. It is possible Dorian will remain a tropical storm during this time and not completely out of the question that it will strengthen to a hurricane. Given the holiday weekend, Dorian has the potential to cause significant disruptions to outdoor activities.
The biggest financial impact could be felt by the travel and tourism industry. Several major airlines are offering waivers for travelers to reschedule flights affected by the storm, and cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean and Disney Cruise Line, have altered their itineraries with replacement stops away from the area. Similarly, hotels in the affected areas of the Caribbean may experience increased cancellations.
AccuWeather forecasts that the most likely scenario at this time is that Dorian remains a tropical storm while impacting eastern Florida. This would lead to isolated power outages due to minor wind damage and isolated flooding. Rough surf and rip currents will make for dangerous beach conditions during the holiday weekend along the east coast of Florida.
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