Rounds of storms to target Plains with flooding, damaging winds this week

By Kyle Elliott, AccuWeather meteorologist

Residents from the eastern slopes of the Rockies and High Plains to part of the Mississippi Valley should brace for multiple rounds of showers and drenching thunderstorms into the weekend.

A nearly stationary weather pattern will set up across the region through the end of the week that will promote the same areas getting hit repeatedly by these thunderstorm complexes.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be drawn northward into the central Plains on the western side of a high pressure system anchored over the Upper Midwest through Friday. At the same time, a frontal boundary separating cooler and more pleasant air across the Midwest from hot and steamy air in the southern Plains will struggle to move much into the start of the weekend.

It is where the moisture and this frontal boundary collide that flash flooding will become a major concern during the rest of the week.

“Kansas City and much of eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Missouri will be in the crosshairs of multiple rounds of overnight downpours into Friday,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Edwards said.

The first of these heavy thunderstorm complexes will fire up Wednesday night and continue through Thursday morning, and another similar situation is expected to develop from Thursday night into Friday morning.

As the high pressure over the Upper Midwest exerts its influence farther south and west from Friday into Saturday, the area of heaviest rain is forecast to shift farther south into southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during this time.

“Rainfall totals will average between 2 and 4 inches from eastern Nebraska down into northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri and western Arkansas, and the hardest-hit areas in this corridor could receive as much as 8 inches of rain,” Edwards added.

Residents in this corridor should prepare now for the possibility of flash flooding, as it will only take a couple of inches of rain in a short amount of time to trigger these issues.

“Widespread flooding is possible where the heaviest rainfall occurs and causes rapid rises on area creeks, streams and rivers,” according to Edwards.

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Much of the south-central Plains and Mississippi Valley was ravaged by months of record-setting flooding this spring and early summer, so additional bouts of heavy rainfall are the last thing that the region needs.

The time to prepare is now. Have a plan of action ready to move to higher ground in the event that flooding threatens your home, property and family members. In addition, motorists that encounter flooded roadways should seek alternate routes as it only takes 1-2 feet of moving water to sweep away most vehicles.

“Turn around, don’t drown,” Edwards warned.

A separate area of severe weather will target the Front Range of the Rockies and High Plains on Thursday.

Although there could be isolated, gusty thunderstorms that develop on Wednesday afternoon and evening, there will be an enhanced threat for violent storms later in the day on Thursday. A persist, easterly flow will drive moisture streaming northward into the Plains up against the Rocky Mountains and allow storms that develop to tap into this fuel source.

In addition, storms will only progress eastward very slowly, so several inches of rain will be possible in only one or two hour’s time.

“Fort Collins, Colorado, was hit with a historic flood in a similar setup on July 28, 1997, after thunderstorms sat over the area and dumped around 6 inches of rain in only 90 minutes,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.

Sojda added that similar trouble could be brewing on Thursday afternoon and evening as the necessary ingredients for extreme, but localized, flash flooding come together.

Damaging wind gusts will accompany the heightened flash flood risk and threaten to knock down trees and power lines, blow around loose, outdoor furniture and cause sporadic power outages.

Cities that could be hit with multiple rounds of dangerous weather this week include Casper and Cheyenne, Wyoming; Rapid City, South Dakota; Denver and Colorado Springs; Omaha, Nebraska; and Kansas City.

By the second half of the weekend, the weather pattern should become more progressive and allow drier air to sweep back into the central Plains and majority of the Front Range.

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