Forecasters closely monitoring Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for the chance of tropical development during the last week of July.

The last system to form during July in the Gulf of Mexico was Barry, which peaked as a hurricane earlier this month.

While Barry formed as a non-tropical disturbance that traveled from the Great Plains to the northern shore of the Gulf of Mexico, this area being monitored may form along the tail end of a cool front that has stalled and is not the remnants of Barry.

Anywhere along the stalled front, there is a slight chance of tropical development over the next several days as very weak disturbances form, fade or move along the front. 

Currently, the risk of tropical development is low, but the greatest chance is estimated at less than 10% over the central Gulf of Mexico.

As of midweek, there was no organization to the pockets of showers and thunderstorms along the frontal zone.

That old front is likely to extend from the central Gulf of Mexico to the northern part of the Florida Peninsula and Atlantic waters from from northeastern Florida to Bermuda late this week.

"Sometimes, large complexes of thunderstorms that linger of the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic coastal waters can begin to lower the atmospheric pressure in the region," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

If the pressure lowers enough and a spin or substantial circulation develops with the complex of thunderstorms, a tropical depression may be born.

A tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph.

Waters are sufficiently warm to support a tropical depression.

"However, a deterrent will be a significant amount of wind shear in the region," Douty said.

Wind shear tends to fluctuate over time. So, if wind shear was to drop off for a while, then slow development may soon follow.

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During this weekend, the general area of showers and thunderstorms is likely to drift northward and eventually settle over parts of Louisiana, coastal Texas and the southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Regardless of tropical development or not, drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms will tend to percolate along the frontal zone in parts of the Deep South through this weekend.

Heavy storms to repeat over Florida

The Florida Peninsula, especially the central and northern portions of the land mass, will be at risk for urban and low-lying area flooding, in addition to isolated severe thunderstorms that can produce damaging wind gusts and a tornado or waterspout.

Beachgoers and boaters along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters along the middle and upper Florida coast should use caution for changing weather conditions related to locally severe thunderstorms.

Weather patterns such as this in the past have produced a few isolated waterspouts and tornadoes, as well as sudden barrages of lightning strikes and torrential downpours.

While rip currents are always present on beaches, the complexes of showers and thunderstorms over the region can cause rip currents to occasionally become strong and more numerous than average in the pattern.

Download the free AccuWeather app to remain aware of tropical updates. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.