Strengthening Cyclone Vayu to slam into western India with damaging winds, flooding rain

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Strengthening Cyclone Vayu is expected to be the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane when it slams into Gujarat in western India early on Thursday.

Vayu will continue to strengthen over the warm waters of the Arabian Sea through midweek.

Vayu intensified into a severe cyclonic storm (the equivalent of a strong tropical storm on the verge of being a hurricane in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans).

Residents of western and central Gujarat should be making preparations for Vayu to slam onshore as a very severe cyclonic storm early on Thursday morning, local time (early Wednesday night EDT).

It is possible that the strength of Vayu will be equal to a strong Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane when it barrels into Gujarat.

Schools and colleges in the district of Rajkot have canceled classes on Thursday, according to India Today. The government is deploying 10 teams of personnel from the National Disaster Response Force to Saurashtra and Kutch.

Seas will continue to build across the Arabian Sea as the storm intensifies, creating dangers for boaters and swimmers.

While the worst of the rain and wind associated with Vayu will remain offshore into Wednesday, tropical moisture is already enhancing monsoon rain in Kerala. These tropical downpours, capable of causing mudslides and flooding, will continue to spread up the coast to Maharashtra as the storm tracks northward.

Conditions will deteriorate across the southern Saurashtra on Wednesday night as powerful Vayu approaches.

RELATED: 
AccuWeather 2019 Asia summer forecast 
What is wind shear and how does it impact hurricanes, other tropical cyclones? 
Why it’s important to protect your cherished, irreplaceable photos before a natural disaster happens 
Storm surge: Explaining the fury and science behind one of nature's most potent forces

Vayu may barrel onshore between Madhavpur, Diu and Mahuva with torrential rain and damaging winds during the early morning hours of Thursday.

AccuWeather meteorologists are still monitoring the potential that Vayu tracks slightly more to the west, causing landfall to occur farther up the western coast of Gujarat later on Thursday. It is also possible that the center of Vayu will stay far enough offshore for the heavy rain and strongest winds to narrowly bypass land.

In the scenario that Vayu slams onshore, there can be wind gusts of 130-175 km/h (80-110 mph) along the coast of Gujarat. Such winds can cause widespread tree damage and lengthy power outages. Weak structures may also sustain significant damage, while well-built structures may incur damage to roofs and siding.

Homes and businesses along the coast of Gujarat may be subject to storm surge flooding, near and to the east of where Vayu makes landfall. This includes along the Gulf of Khambhat as the water is funneled toward the coast.

The combination of interaction with land and drier air will cause Vayu to gradually lose its wind intensity Thursday into Friday. However, heavy rain can continue to pour down during this time and prolong the danger of widespread flooding and road closures.

"Rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) is likely along coastal Gujarat with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches), according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Nicholls stated that the dry air should limit the heaviest rain to the coast with a sharp drop off just inland.

"Dry air will also limit rainfall in southeast Pakistan and may keep rain from reaching into Rajasthan," he added.

Cyclone Vayu was seen churning offshore of western India on Tuesday, June 11, 2019. (UW-CIMSS)

Dangerous heat will instead hold firm with temperatures soaring between 41-44 C (106-112 F) daily in the National Capital Region.

Temperatures soared to 48.0 C (118.4 F) at the Palam Observatory in New Delhi on Monday. That is now the hottest June temperature on record, according to Scroll.

The highest temperature ever reported at Palam sits at 48.4 C (119.1 F), while the record at nearby Safdarjung Airport is 47.2 C (117 F).

Volume 0%

 

South of Vayu, moisture will continue to steadily stream onto the southwestern coast of India through the remainder of this week.

The persistent downpours can lead to an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches) along the coast from Goa to Kerala this week. The hardest-hit areas can face flooding and evacuations.

"Mumbai is likely to escape the onslaught of flooding downpours expected for the southwestern coast and the significant impacts from the cyclone that Gujarat may face," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

"There can still be showers and thunderstorms that can produce 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain and travel disruptions this week," he added.

On the other side of India, Nicholls is keeping a close eye on an area of disturbed weather over the northeastern Bay of Bengal.

"While this feature can become better organized, it is unlikely to strengthen into a cyclone," he said. "It will bring rain, some heavy, to Myanmar, southeastern Bangladesh and Northeast India Wednesday into Friday."

Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert of the latest information on the tropical threats to India.