Tropical downpours to enhance flood, mudslide risk in Central America this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

As the month of May moves into its final week, the East Pacific basin continues to wait for its first named tropical storm of the 2019 season.

AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor a large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure off the coast of Central America, which has been bringing widespread rainfall from Guatemala to Panama since last week.

There is some chance that this tropical low will further organize into a named tropical system; however, the likelihood of this occurring remains low.

Regardless of development, the tropical low will bring downpours to Central America into this weekend.

The countries likely to be affected include Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

The rainfall will be exacerbated by the slow movement of this system, allowing the downpours to linger over the same areas for several days.

Through Wednesday night, the heaviest rainfall will be from eastern El Salvador into southern Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

In these areas, 6 to 10 inches of rain will be likely, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches in western Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

These areas will be at risk of flash flooding and mudslides along with numerous travel disruptions.

RELATED: 
AccuWeather's 2019 East and Central Pacific hurricane season forecast 
East Pacific Hurricane Center 
Interactive East Pacific weather satellite

During the second half of the week, the downpours will shift northward, affecting areas from western Honduras and El Salvador into Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico.

From Thursday into Sunday, rainfall may total 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 450 mm (18 inches) from El Salvador into southern Guatemala and Mexico's states of Chiapas, Oaxaca Veracruz and Tabasco.

The heavy rainfall will again bring the risk of flooding, mudslides and travel disruptions. Any thunderstorms can also produce locally damaging winds.

With the tropical low likely to remain close to or over land, the chance of development will remain small into this weekend.

Even if the tropical low manages to become a depression, widespread wind damage is not expected to be a concern for those on land. Some gustier winds could be possible for shipping and boaters farther away from the Pacific Ocean coastline of Central America.

A satellite picture of the East Pacific on Wednesday, May 29, showing an area of showers and thunderstorms near Central America. (Image/NOAA)

This is the beginning of what is expected to be a busy hurricane season in the East Pacific. AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting between 20 and 22 named storms this season.

Beyond this developing system, there are no immediate threats for tropical development into next week across the East Pacific.

However, with copious amounts of moisture in the area and warm ocean water temperatures, AccuWeather meteorologists will closely monitor the basin for potential development in the coming weeks.