April coastal nor'easter to target areas from Carolinas to Massachusetts, Maine

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

While a rapidly strengthening storm will dodge Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York City, it will spread gusty winds, rough surf and rain from North Carolina to Massachusetts from Tuesday to Wednesday.

As AccuWeather warned about early last week, while the nor'easterwill have adverse impacts in the southeastern and coastal northeastern United States, its most dangerous conditions are likely to be over the nearby Atlantic Ocean.

Dangerous conditions expected at sea

Seas will build and winds will increase rapidly from off the Carolina coast to the waters surrounding the Maritime Provinces of Canada by midweek.

A man watches the surf as heavy seas continue to come ashore in Wintrhrop, Mass., Saturday, March 3, 2018, a day after a nor'easter pounded the Atlantic coast. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Gusts near the center of the offshore storm may approach hurricane force (74 mph or greater), while seas of 15-25 feet are likely with locally higher winds and waves.

In this situation, small craft should remain within the protection of the Intercoastal Waterway and large vessels such as cruise ships and freighter should consider an alternate route or delay their departure or arrival to ports along the mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime coasts.

As waves propagate outward from the center of the storm and winds increase while the storm is moving northeastward, expect rough surf and/or beach erosion from North Carolina to Nova Scotia.

With the new moon early on Thursday, April 4, and given that astronomical tides are a bit higher a couple of days prior to the new or full moon, coastal flooding may be a bit worse with this storm, when compared with other storms that remain offshore.

Storm's impact to extend well inland, include snow over the Southeast

The storm will produce an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. into Tuesday.

Enough rain may fall from northeastern Florida to the Georgia coast and central and southeastern South and North Carolina to cause urban flooding. The fast forward motion of the storm should prevent major stream and river flooding.

A few of the thunderstorms can become strong enough to produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and hail in parts of Florida.

"Some snow is likely to fall on parts of western and central North Carolina, as well as upstate South Carolina during Tuesday morning," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

"While this snow generally will not accumulate on roads, it could create dangerous isolated ice patches for the morning commute, especially on bridges and overpasses around Asheville, Winston-Salem and Charlotte, North Carolina, and Greenville and Spartanburg, South Carolina," Rayno said.

As the storm strengthens rapidly, winds will ramp up along the Carolina and Virginia coasts on Tuesday. Winds may become strong enough on the Outer Banks and in coastal communities on the mainland to break tree limbs and cause sporadic power outages. Gusts may top 50 mph in these areas.

Coinciding with the strong winds, coastal flooding is likely in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia with tides expected to run 2-3 feet above normal. Motorists in the Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Hampton Roads, Virginia, area should expect some roads and parking lots to take on water.

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Storm's impact to hug Northeast coast

To a lesser extent, coastal flooding can also occur along the Atlantic coast of Maryland, central and southeastern Delaware and central and southern New Jersey.

Shoreline communities that take on water during strong nor'easters should expect minor coastal flooding in the traditional low-lying areas.

Only the short duration of the storm will limit the extent of coastal flooding and beach erosion.

The swath from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Hartford, Connecticut, may get a bit of rain and a breeze from the storm on its most northwestward extent.

Significant impact from the storm on the cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C., is not expected from Tuesday night to early Wednesday. However, the blossoms will be a bit past peak and hence more fragile than if the storm grazed the area this past weekend. Some of the petals may fall off with a bit of rain and a breeze.

Areas from Delmarva to central and southeastern New Jersey; western Long Island, New York; Rhode Island; southeastern Connecticut; central Massachusetts; coastal New Hampshire and central Maine can expect some rain and wind from the storm.

However, like coastal areas in the South, eastern Long Island, southeastern Massachusetts, Down East Maine, Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island and southeastern New Brunswick can expect nor'easter conditions. These areas will be hit with heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf.

Since the center of the storm is likely to stay offshore of these areas, it should not be as damaging as previous nor'easters. Gusts topping 60 mph can occur on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and the islands.

Heavy seas continue to come ashore in Wintrhrop, Mass., Saturday, March 3, 2018, a day after a nor'easter pounded the Atlantic coast. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Even so, communities such as as Scituate, Plymouth and Sagamore, Massachusetts, should be prepared for some overwash and coastal flooding, in addition to tree damage and power outages. Even Boston may have some minor problems with the storm.

"Just enough cold air will be available for snow to fall in part or during much of the storm from east-central Maine to central New Brunswick," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

A few inches (10 centimeters) or more may fall in these northern areas.

Download the free AccuWeather app for the latest details on storm impacts, if any, on your location.