Weather Outside Your Window: December 2018

Monday, December 31, 2018

1st large storm of 2019 to spread rain, ice and snow from Texas to New England late this week

The stormy pattern that began the last week of 2018 will continue into 2019 as the first major storm of the new year will spread a large swath of rain and some ice and snow from the southern Plains to the northeastern United States later this week.

The storm threatens to restrict travel as millions head home from their holiday ventures and return to work and school.

The same storm producing snow in the Southwest through Tuesday will reorganize over the southern Plains on Wednesday, travel northeastward Thursday and Friday, and then push off the Atlantic coast this weekend.

Download the free AccuWeather app to see the details on the next storm to roll across a large part of the nation.

Storm to bring risk of heavy snow, dangerous ice, flooding to South Central states

Just enough cold air may sneak in at low levels of the atmosphere to produce a swath of ice and a wintry mix from portions of central Texas to parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas.

The risk of at least some ice may extend as far south as the Hill Country near San Antonio. The Dallas metro area may be in the cross hairs of an ice storm, while Oklahoma City may see a sizable wintry mix that includes ice and snow.

A swath of accumulating snow is likely on the northwestern flank of the ice storm from parts of northwestern Texas to northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.

Enough rain may fall from a portion of the Texas coast to the lower Mississippi Valley to aggravate flooding.

Many small streams and large rivers are running well above average for this time of the year. Some rivers have been and will remain above flood stage.

This graphic shows where the heaviest rain is likely to fall with the storm from Wednesday night to Friday. However, some rain will fall farther north to the Ohio Valley and drenching rain is also likely to reach the Northeast to end the week.

Storm to impact Ohio Valley, Southeast from Thursday to Friday

The area of ice may disappear over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys as the structure of the storm changes and less cold air is likely to be found in the lowest part of the atmosphere.

There may be a sharp northern edge to the rain area, which may limit the amount of snow on the storm's northern flank over the Midwest. Rain may stay south of Chicago and Detroit.

However, rain may change to wet snow in part of this area as the storm moves along and colder air is drawn in on the back side.

Drenching rain will be a major factor with this storm over parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

These areas, like that of the South Central states, may receive enough rain to cause urban, small stream flooding and renew some river flooding.

Storm to bring rain and some ice and snow to Northeast at week's end

The bulk of the storm is forecast to affect the Northeast from Friday to Saturday.

A lack of Arctic air will limit the amount of snow and ice in the Northeast, which has been the case for the past several storms. For cities such as Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., this would be a rain event and not snow.

Just enough cold air may be present to allow some ice and snow at times in parts of upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania and New England.

Similar to the Midwest, enough cold air may be drawn into the storm at the end to bring a change to wet snow over the higher elevations of the central Appalachians.

Severe weather possible in southeastern US

As is the case with most potent storms that track well inland and pull warm and humid air northward, this feature may carry the risk of severe thunderstorms as well.

The possibility of heavy, gusty and perhaps locally severe storms will extend from the lower Mississippi Valley during late Thursday and Thursday night and on Friday along the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

At this time, the greatest threat of severe weather may stem from strong wind gusts and flash flooding. However, when severe thunderstorms occur there is almost always a chance of a tornado being spawned.

2018 was a record-breaking year for extreme weather events and storms. Extreme Meteorologist and Storm Chaser Reed Timmer talked to us about his top five chases of the year. He discussed some of his most dangerous experiences, what it's like to be out in the field and the moments he'll never forget.

2018 to end with gusty thunderstorms, risk of damaging winds in Tennessee Valley

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

December 31, 2018, 10:42:06 AM EST

The same storm producing drenching rain and pumping warm air into the eastern United States will bring gusty thunderstorms and the potential for damaging winds over the Tennessee Valley into Monday night.

Winds will generally be blowing from the same direction near the ground and at the jet stream level of the atmosphere.

When this setup occurs, the strong winds from aloft are able to make their way down to the ground.

Both thunderstorms and showers can deliver the powerful gusts, according to AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.

"Thunder and lightning will not be necessary for a damaging wind gust to occur," Walker said.

Windy conditions are in store from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, northward to Kentucky.

The greatest potential for a gust strong enough to knock down trees, cause power outages and property damage will be during or in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

"There is not a lot of support for the atmosphere to produce tornadoes in this situation, despite the strong winds in general," Walker said.

However, there is always a small chance for a severe thunderstorm to spin off a tornado.

Motorists venturing along the interstates 20, 40 and 64 will face the strongest crosswinds. Gusts may become strong enough to push lightweight vehicles off the road and flip over high-profile vehicles, such as trucks and campers.

This map shows the area where the greatest risk of damaging winds exists. Strong wind gusts may occur outside of this area as well.

Major cities that run the risk of damaging winds and power outages include New Orleans, Monroe and Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville, Tennessee; Tupelo, Columbus and Jackson, Mississippi; Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and Montgomery, Alabama; Paducah, Bowling Green and London, Kentucky; and Pensacola, Florida.

Along with the risk of damaging wind gusts will be brief, torrential downpours accompanying the showers and thunderstorms.

Download the free AccuWeather app to get the latest forecast and any severe weather advisories for your location.

Since the large storm is making for conditions similar to the spring or summer, any downpour has the potential to cause flash and urban flooding.

The risk of damaging winds and flooding downpours will diminish over the Tennessee Valley from west to east as drier air takes hold later Monday night.

A few locally heavy and gusty showers and thunderstorms may be found in the Southeast states on New Year's Day.

The amount of drying will be limited, however.

Showers may linger along the central Gulf coast on Tuesday to Wednesday. A new storm is forecast to spread rain northward across the Tennessee Valley from Thursday to Friday.

2018 was one of the least active years on record for US tornadoes; No twister rated EF4 or higher

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer

December 31, 2018, 7:14:07 AM EST

In a year that featured catastrophic hurricanes and historic wildfires, 2018 could close out as one of the quietest and least-deadly years for tornadoes in United States history.

“2018 is running near the minimum in terms of number of tornadoes recorded in modern times,” said Dr. Patrick Marsh, a warning coordination meteorologist at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

As of Dec. 29, there have been 991 tornadoes across the United States in 2018. This is noticeably lower than the average of 1,287 and only slightly higher than the record low of 897 tornadoes, set in 2014.

A large tornado near Tescott, Kansas, on May 1, 2018. (AccuWeather Photo/Blake Naftel)

One reason behind the near-record low tornado count was the absence of significant severe weather outbreaks during the spring when tornadoes typically frequent the central United States.

“The typical big tornado months were uncharacteristically devoid of tornado outbreaks this year. In particular, April and May were relatively quiet in terms of tornado numbers with May having over 100 fewer tornadoes than the three-year average,” Marsh said.

“Oklahoma did not report a tornado until May -- the latest date for a first tornado [in the state] in the NOAA database,” Marsh said.

Another factor that resulted in a dip in tornado numbers this year is the overall storm track.

"The far-cooler air was a result of a persistent Canadian storm track driving chilly Canadian clipper-type systems into the Plains. The ideal storm track is a more westerly-southwesterly storm track that can lift a more subtropical air mass northward from the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.

The black line on this graph shows the number of tornadoes recorded through Dec. 29, 2018. (Image/NOAA/SPC)

Not only has 2018 had a lower-than-average number of tornadoes, but there has been an absence of incredibly violent twisters.

Tornadoes are ranked on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with an EF0 being the weakest and an EF5 being the most intense.

“I am unaware of any tornado in 2018 being rated an EF4,” Marsh said.

This is the first year since records began in 1950 that there has not been a violent F/EF4 tornado anywhere in the U.S.

“We have to be a little careful with this information as tornado ratings for the entire year are not finalized yet and so it is subject to some change. However, it is reasonable to assume that no tornado has achieved a rating of EF4 in 2018,” Marsh added.

In addition to the lower-than-normal tornado activity, 2018 is also poised to finish as the year with the fewest tornado-related fatalities on record.

As of Dec. 28, there have only been 10 tornado-related fatalities across the United States, the lowest number since records began in 1875. The previous record was 12 tornado-related fatalities in 1910.

This is also significantly lower than the 20-year average of 80 tornado-related fatalities per year, according to Texas Tech University.

The ever-expanding use of weather apps and social media has helped to revolutionize the way that people are alerted about tornado warnings in recent years, helping to save lives when a tornado strikes.

Download the free AccuWeather app to receive alerts when severe weather is approaching.

While the past year will go in the record books as one of the least active years for tornadoes, 2018 still featured some notable tornadoes across the country.

In July, a catastrophic EF3 tornado struck Marshalltown, Iowa, leaving at least 17 people injured.

On Oct. 28, a tornado touched down in the city limits of Portland, Oregon, the first tornado to do so since April 6, 1972.

Just over one month later, an EF3 tornado struck Taylorville, Illinois, injuring 20 people and damaging over 100 homes. This was one of the strongest tornadoes during a multi-day severe weather outbreak right before the start of meteorological winter.

Washington also had the state’s strongest tornado since 1986 when an EF2 twister touched down in Port Orchard on Dec. 18.

Mild weather to highlight 118th Mummers Parade in Philadelphia

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

December 31, 2018, 11:20:52 AM EST

Dry, mild and gusty weather is expected for the 118th annual Mummers Parade in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Jan. 1, 2019.

Unlike one year prior, when temperatures were in the teens for the parade and officials contemplated a postponement due to the frigid conditions, people attending the festivities this Tuesday can leave the heavy winter gear behind.

For some, even light jackets may not be necessary.

Conditions will dry out and temperatures will surge to record-challenging levels in the wake of rain dampening New Year’s Eve in the city. Sunshine is also expected to break out.

Temperatures will be near 60 degrees Fahrenheit for much of the parade, which begins at 9 a.m. EST, and will only trail back into the middle 50s F by the last of the performances in the afternoon.

This is around 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for Jan. 1, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Babinski.

The city’s record high for Jan. 1 is 64 F, originally set in 2005.

Members of the Frailnger String Band perform during the Mummers Parade in Philadelphia on Friday, Jan. 1, 2016. (AP Photo/Joseph Kaczmarek)

AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will only be slightly lower due to gusty winds.

“Winds of 12-25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph are expected,” Babinski said.

While the tall buildings along the parade route can shelter spectators and participants from these winds at times, they can also create a wind tunnel effect, causing the winds to pick up speed in between the city streets.

Participants should make sure any loose materials or hats that are part of their elaborate costumes are securely fastened to ensure these items do not get blown off.

The parade’s origins date back to the late 17th century, when early settlers brought Old World New Year’s traditions to Philadelphia.

The Mummers Parade became officially recognized on Jan. 1, 1901, after starting as unorganized neighborhood celebrations throughout the city.

The parade’s name originates from the term “Mummer,” which refers to an actor or someone who masquerades.

2019 NHL Winter Classic: Flurries may fly as Blackhawks and Bruins square off at Notre Dame Stadium

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

December 31, 2018, 11:01:35 AM EST

The National Hockey League’s New Year’s Day tradition continues this year in South Bend, Indiana, as the Chicago Blackhawks face off against the Boston Bruins.

This year’s game will take place at Notre Dame Stadium on the campus of the University of Notre Dame and the weather should cooperate. The game will start around 1 p.m. EST.

“Temperatures will be in the low 30s in the morning and only rebound to the mid-30s for the afternoon hours,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Greene said. “North-northwest winds will add some chill to the air with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the mid-20s. There can be some flurries around before and during the game."

A bit of drizzle and freezing drizzle may also occur.

South Bend is located about 95 miles to the east of Chicago.

Boston Bruins defenseman Brandon Carlo, right, controls the puck against Chicago Blackhawks right John Hayden during the second period of an NHL hockey game Sunday, March 11, 2018, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Conditions haven't always been favorable for the popular outdoor game. In 2011, the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh was moved from the afternoon to 8 p.m. EST due to rainy weather.

An overcast sky is forecast for South Bend on Tuesday, which help limit the risk of sun glare causing a delay.

In 2012, sun glare pushed caused the game between the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia to be delayed for two hours.

It’s the second time in the history of the Winter Classic that the game is taking place on a college campus. The previous occurrence came in 2014 when the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs played at Michigan Stadium, located on the campus of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Tropical cyclone will threaten Queensland, Australia, with more flooding

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

December 31, 2018, 8:36:25 AM EST

A tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria will threaten northern and eastern Queensland with flooding in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Owen.

Low pressure in the Gulf of Carpentaria developed into a tropical cyclone on Monday. Heavy, potentially flooding rainfall will likely ensue across the Cape York Peninsula into the start of the new year.

This rain is coming after Tropical Cyclone Owen made landfall nearby during the middle of December.

Rainfall in the Cape York Peninsula is expected to reach 150-300 mm (6-12 inches). Communities such as Nanum, Aurukun and Cooktown will be as risk for the heaviest rain. Peninsula Development Road (Queensland State Route 81) could be significantly impacted by flooding and washouts early this week.

While heavy rainfall is likely across northern Queensland early this week, impacts are not yet as certain across eastern Queensland.

As the strengthening tropical cyclone pulls into the Coral Sea, two scenarios are most likely.

In one scenario the cyclone would continue to track southeastward across the Coral Sea, possibly threatening Vanuatu or New Caledonia.

The second scenario is the most threatening for Australia as the cyclone turns back to the west and nears the central Queensland coast by the weekend.

In this scenario, communities from Townsville to Mackay and Gladstone would be threatened by potentially damaging wind and flooding rain. As there remains uncertainty in the track, residents in eastern Queensland should continue to monitor the situation.

Download the free AccuWeather app to stay aware of this or any other threatening weather.

Arctic air to follow waves of snow across northern Plains, Great Lakes as 2019 begins

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

December 31, 2018, 10:58:21 AM EST

Two storms will bring snow to parts of the North Central states, and then open the door for brutal cold into the new year.

Snow began in the northern Plains on Sunday and picked up in intensity across the Dakotas and Minnesota on Sunday night.

While the snow has largely ended for most of North Dakota, snow will continue from parts of South Dakota and western Nebraska to central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Before snow tapers off during Monday night, several inches of accumulation is expected across the area.

The heaviest snow is likely from western South Dakota to northern Minnesota, where as much as 3-6 inches of snow is possible in total.

Download the free AccuWeather app to get the latest on how much snow is expected for your area.

Increasingly windy conditions will take place across the Dakotas as well, making for wind-blown snow, said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Gusty winds will spread into Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into Monday night, putting travelers at risk for reduced visibility from blowing snow along interstates 29, 35, 90 and 94.

This snow will usher in arctic air, which combined with gusty winds will make for AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures between zero and minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday night.

“RealFeel® Temperatures can plummet to around minus 30 in Aberdeen, South Dakota, and minus 38 in Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota, on Monday evening,” added Pydynowski.

In such conditions, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.

Farther south, as a separate storm brings rain to parts of the South and Ohio Valley during New Year’s Eve, some snow and a wintry mix will fall on its northwestern flank.

Slippery conditions are expected for those traveling on Monday night from parts of Iowa, southern Wisconsin and the northern part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Brisk northerly winds will accompany the snow, with gusts up to 25 mph.

A few flakes may linger across Michigan through the morning hours on New Year’s Day, but the majority of the snow at that point will have moved into Ontario and Quebec.

Instead, dry and cold air will grip the Great Lakes. High temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to reach the middle 30s across northern Illinois and Michigan.

The cold will likely linger through Wednesday, before warming up later in the week.

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