Sergio to unload flooding rainfall in western Mexico, southwestern US into Saturday

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

October 12, 2018, 11:16:38 PM EDT

Sergio will push into northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States into Saturday, producing another round of flooding rainfall in the wake of Rosa.

Sergio made landfall around Los Castros in Baja California Sur, Mexico, during Friday morning, local time.

Heavy, flooding rainfall and gusty winds will accompany Sergio’s push across western Mexico before the downpours take aim at a portion of the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains.

Downpours will return to the southeastern corner of Arizona and New Mexico, but these states will likely miss out on the bulk of Sergio's rainfall.

Sergio's downpours will track more to the south and east of where Rosa's heavy rain recently spread, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

"Tucson, Arizona, and El Paso, Texas, may be in line for a thorough soaking," she said.

Phoenix, on the other hand, may be completely missed by the downpours.

Instead, the cities of El Paso and Lubbock, Texas, will take the bulk of the rain from Sergio Friday night and into Saturday.

Rainfall across western and north-central Texas could reach 1-2 inches, bringing some drought relief but also flash flooding. Up to 4 inches of rain may fall from Sergio's moisture alone.

Along the southern edge of the rain, there can be locally strong to severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging wind gusts and a couple of isolated tornadoes.

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The rain associated with Sergio will begin to fizzle late in the day on Saturday and Saturday night as it moves through eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and into Arkansas.

However, Sergio will not be the end of wet weather in the southern Plains this weekend.

A storm that will start by bringing snow into the Rockies will continue to push southward into Texas later this weekend.

The cold air associated with this system could pull show as far south as the northern Texas Panhandle.

"Areas that will start the weekend dealing with heavy rain could end up with snow before the end of the weekend," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.

As the cold air merges with the lingering moisture, parts of the southern Plains may end up with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches into Tuesday. This will be the combination of Sergio's rain and non-tropical rain that follows.