New tropical threat set to lash Mexico with wind, rain into next week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

October 17, 2018, 10:58:34 AM EDT

Despite Tropical Rainstorm Tara weakening, Mexico remains on high alert as a new tropical threat is expected to develop in the next 24 to 48 hours.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of northern Central America will drift northwestward and likely become a tropical depression by Thursday and is likely to become the 20th tropical storm of the East Pacific season by Friday.

Upon reaching tropical storm strength, the name Vicente would be given to this brewing tropical cyclone.

Initial impacts will be felt across southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras through Thursday as the storm becomes better organized.

Localized flooding and an elevated risk for mudslides will be the greatest concern. Thunderstorms can produce locally damaging winds; however, no widespread damaging wind threat is expected.

As the budding tropical cyclone continues to track northwestward and becomes better organized, impacts will shift from Central America into more of southern Mexico.

By Friday, downpours will spread across Oaxaca and Guerrero, bringing the risk for flooding and travel disruptions to Acapulco and Puerto Escondido.

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In the longer range, the exact track of this new tropical threat will determine the severity of impacts across Mexico.

The potential exists for this new tropical system to become a hurricane this weekend, and the storm may track close enough to the coast to bring the risk for damaging winds to coastal locations from Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero on Saturday to Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco on Sunday.

If the storm tracks farther off the coast, damaging winds will remain offshore; however, there will still be the risk for downpours capable of causing flooding, mudslides and travel disruptions.

Impacts to Mexico will continue into next week as the storm will likely be pulled northward, bringing the risk for damaging winds to areas from Baja California to the interior of northern Mexico.

The potential also exists for some tropical moisture to be pulled into neighboring parts of the United States, including Texas, where devastating flooding occurred earlier this week.