Brewing tropical storm may target US Gulf Coast, renew flooding across East next week

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

October 06, 2018, 11:22:23 AM EDT

A tropical storm may brew over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico into early next week with potential threats to the southeastern United States by midweek.

AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring a tropical system that is showing signs of becoming better organized over the northwestern Caribbean, east of Belize.

The system may strengthen into a tropical depression or storm as it tracks northward near the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico into Monday.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name Michael.

Further strengthening may occur as the storm churns over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

While it is not out of the question the storm can become a Category 1 hurricane, the presence of some wind shear may limit rapid intensification.

Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes. Moderate wind shear, however, may help to vent a budding tropical system and allow it to strengthen.

Regardless of its strength and status, downpours and a risk for flooding will accompany the system along its track, even beyond an expected landfall in the southeastern U.S.

Heavy rain threat in the northwestern Caribbean as storm brews

"The combination of the developing system and moisture from the Pacific Ocean will lead to numerous downpours streaming over Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba into Monday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.

Localized downpours may also target the rest of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola over the weekend.

Flash flooding and mudslides will threaten lives and property across parts of the region. Seas can also turn rough as the system organizes and strengthens.

Storm may target US Gulf Coast next week

"Climatologically speaking, odds favor that a storm emerging from the northwestern Caribbean will track toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Texas coastline this time of year," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Latest indications support a track away from the Texas coastline, but residents and others with interests along the central or eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of the storm.

Seas will build across the Gulf of Mexico early next week as the storm churns northward, creating dangers for swimmers and boaters well in advance of the storm.

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The largest swells and greatest hazards can be anticipated over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, but seas can still turn rough along the Texas coastline and at southeastern U.S. Atlantic beaches by midweek.

Operators of the oil platforms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will have to monitor the situation to ensure the safety of their workers.

Flooding rain and gusty winds can spread over the Gulf Coast around the middle of next week. A more eastward track can also bring downpours to the Florida Peninsula early in the week.

The exact track of the storm will determine whether the heaviest rain and zone of damaging winds focus more toward Louisiana or northern Florida at midweek.

There is also a risk of storm surge flooding and isolated tornadoes near and east of where the storm makes landfall.

Residents from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle are urged to use this weekend to review preparation tips and stock up on key essentials, such as non-perishable food, bottled water and medicines should the storm threaten.

Those living in communities at risk for storm surge flooding should have a plan in place if evacuation orders are given.

Flood risk may expand across southern US, possibly into eastern US

After landfall, the storm alone can spread flooding rain across a part of the South later next week.

Areas hit hard by Florence may face disruptions to ongoing cleanup efforts or renewed flooding depending on the track of the storm.

The risk for flooding may become more severe and life-threatening if the storm stalls or moves very slowly over the Deep South—one scenario that AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring.

The flood risk, however, may expand well away from the storm’s track as another system comes into play.

This system can guide the tropical feature or at least its moisture northward, which may lead to another round of heavy rain across parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England late next week.

"Many portions of the eastern U.S. are on track for a top-10 wettest year on record, and some are coming off their wettest summer on record," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

"Unusually high river and small stream levels, combined with soggy ground in parts of the East, are a perfect recipe for renewed flooding this autumn should any tropical or moisture-rich non-tropical storm to come calling," he said.

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